Greyhound Handicapping: Compare These Stats The Right Way To Win

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Eb Netr

August 8th, 2013

If, like me, you pay attention to the win percentage of the dogs you handicap, there's something to keep in mind. When you look at how often the dog wins or the percentage of races it wins, you have to make sure that you're not mixing the apples in with the oranges, so to speak.

You know how people say, "Don't compare apples to oranges?" Well, that applies to win percentages for greyhounds too. For instance, if you look at JJ's Nipper in the 1 box and he has had 40 races and won 10 of them, you could just say that he has a win percentage of 25%, because he's won a quarter of his races. Not a bad win average, by the way.

Some people write down the win average and also the quiniela average so that they can compare them to the other dogs in the race. That's all well and good, but what if LL Boomer, in the 2 box, has had 100 races and has won 25 of them. That means he has a win percentage of 25% too. So, does that mean they're evenly matched for win percentage?

Not really. In order to really compare this type of statistic, you have to go a little deeper into the makeup of the races that each dog won. If they're in a Grade A race today, you'll want to know how many of those wins that made up a quarter of their races came in Grade A or better races.

If Boomer won most of his races in Grade C and D and Nipper won his in Grade A and B, that fact would be more important than just the percentage. It would certainly make me give Nipper's 25 percent more weight than Boomer's. I wouldn't JUST use that factor, of course. I'd cover all the other important considerations that I take into account when I handicap. But as far as win percentage goes, Nipper would get the nod and some further handicapping scrutiny from me.It's the same with some other factors, speed for instance.

A 30:52 in Grade C is more impressive than a 30:52 in Grade M. A dog that takes the lead and never is challenged might not have as fast a time as a dog that is literally hounded by another dog all the way around the track, and turns in a faster time.

Maybe, if this race has more competition in the form of dogs that will run up on the leaders, the slower dog will turn in a faster time than it did in the race with no other dog pressing it. I'd look at its other races to see if it runs faster when pushed than it does when it's loose on the lead.

They say that everything is relative. That certainly applies to greyhound handicapping. Make sure that you compare like to like when you sift through the factors and stats that reveal the probable race winner.