Kentucky Derby Preview: Future Wager Pool 2 – March 1, 2013

Profile Picture: Matt Carter

Matt Carter

February 28th, 2013

Friday is the opening of the second Future Wager pool for the 2013 Kentucky Derby so let’s take a look at some of the contenders with their opening odds.

The favorite for the pool to start, and most likely when it closes on Sunday, is “All Other Three-Year-Olds.”  Remember we still have two months until the Derby and a lot can happen during that time.  The value is hardly ever there with an all other pick, but a win is a win.

At 10-1 on the line are Super Ninety Nine and Verrazano, both numbers are possible to represent value if the two colts remain unbeaten in their starts leading up to the Derby.  Super Ninety Nine just walked against nine other rivals in the Grade 3 Southwest over a speed biased track that was sealed due to heavy rain.  He still has questions to be answered as does Verrazano, who is two-for-two in his brief career, but has yet to run in a graded stakes and has yet to run around two turns.  Also he has the whole never started as a two-year-old thing going against him.

Super Ninety Nine is likely to go back to Arkansas for the Arkansas Derby while Verrazano will stay in Florida, but ship up to Tampa for the Tampa Bay Derby.

Orb is 12-1 on the line, but is likely to go lower than that off his Fountain of Youth win last weekend.  The son of Malibu Moon has now won three straight races and is on the up-and-up.  The Florida Derby will be on the radar for trainer Shug McGaughey and a win in there may propel him to favoritism on the first Saturday in May.

Flashback, trained by Bob Baffert, Itsmyluckyday, Edward Plesa, and Revolutionary, Todd Pletcher, are also 12-1 on the morning line.  Of the three, Flashback deserves a long look as the described “freak” has yet to be tested in his first two races.  That test should come on March 9 in the San Felipe at Santa Anita where he is expected to face Goldencents, winner of the Grade 3 Jackpot at Delta Downs and the Grade 3 Sham and is 20-1 in the Future Pool.

The “I am partial to this horse, so I’m going to bet him” award goes to I’ve Struck a Nerve, the 135-1 upset winner of the Risen Star last weekend at Fair Grounds.  I’ve Struck a Nerve flashed talent in the mornings at Del Mar, but kept catching solid fields with trainers who like to win early with their horses.  The Yankee Gentleman colt was just growing into his legs then and finally put it all together.  Is he a one-race wonder?  The Louisiana Derby on March 30 should tell us more.

Who do you like?  Make sure you take a dip into the Future Pool, which runs from noon on Friday, March 1 and ends at 6:00 pm ET on Sunday, March 3.