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MLB picks: Red Sox vs. Rays, Dodgers vs. Padres

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

June 23rd, 2021

Let’s discuss the wisest wagers on the diamond this Wednesday night!

We’ll start with a preview of an AL East clash between the Boston Red Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays. Then we’ll highlight the NL West battle between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres.

Boston Red Sox (44-29) at Tampa Bay Rays (43-31), 7:10 p.m. ET

Wed, June 23 2021, 11:10 PM

TB Rays

Moneyline

-155

Spread

-1.5

Total

O 9

BOS Red Sox

Moneyline

+128

Spread

+1.5

Total

U 9

Two struggling starters in Boston’s Garrett Richards and Tampa’s Rich Hill will match up at Tropicana Field against two high-octane offenses. Bettors should be on the Over in this spot.

Richards has allowed eight earned runs on 18 hits and three walks in his last two starts alone (9 1/3 innings). If he can’t pitch deep once more, that will put pressure on a Red Sox bullpen that owns a mediocre 4.73 ERA over the last two weeks.

The Rays may have lost seven straight heading into Wednesday, but their offense has plated at least five runs in four of those defeats. Tampa is eighth in runs per game on the year (4.84), and their lineup got a shot in the arm with the promotion of uber-prospect Wander Franco on Tuesday.

However, Hill has had struggles of his own, allowing four earned runs in two straight starts of five innings or fewer. The Rays’ bullpen looks better equipped to handle a less-than-stellar start from him, until one looks at their major-league last 55.6% strand rate over the previous two weeks.

MLB pick: Over


Los Angeles Dodgers (44-29) at San Diego Padres (44-32), 10:10 p.m. ET, ESPN

Thu, June 24 2021, 2:10 AM

SD Padres

Moneyline

-117

Spread

+1.5

Total

O 7.5

LA Dodgers

Moneyline

-106

Spread

-1.5

Total

U 7.5

The Padres are looking for the sweep in what’s so far been a riveting three-game series against the Dodgers on Wednesday night. Picking the winner appears to be a coin-flip situation with L.A.’s Trevor Bauer squaring off with San Diego’s Joe Musgrove, but Under bettors should have an easy time of things here.

Bauer had seen his ERA rise from 1.98 to 2.64 over a four-start span before facing the Arizona Diamondbacks last Friday. The 2020 NL Cy Young winner got himself back on track with seven innings of shutout baseball.

Bauer has faced the Friars twice this year, recording a quality start in each instance while producing a 0.75 WHIP. The Dodgers’ bullpen remains a Top 10 unit the majors with a 3.76 ERA on the campaign.

Musgrove will be looking to avoid a repeat of his lone start against L.A. this year, when he needed 77 pitches to negotiate three innings before getting the hook. That occurred despite his allowing only one run on three hits and two walks.

Musgrove owns a 1.58 ERA over his last 40 innings of work, and the Padres bullpen is second in the majors by ERA (2.80), so don’t expect any major rallies from the Dodgers’ offense.

MLB pick: Under

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