Boston Red Sox Rolling On Run Line

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July 25th, 2018

Boston Red Sox Bats Exploding and Rewarding Run Line Bettors

by Fairway Jay

After watching last week’s All-Star game and the American League win 8-6 to earn its 6thstraight Midsummer Classic over the National League, teams returned to their regular season work and push towards a pennant. A record 10 home runs were hit in the All-Star game, smashing the previous record of six hit in three different Midsummer classics with the last being in 1971.

In the American League, the Red Sox continue to roll and are on pace to win 106 games. Boston is in rarified air of playing near 70% baseball at 71-32, and the Red Sox have opened up a 5-game lead on their biggest rival New York Yankees. The Bronx Bombers may lead the majors in home runs with 162, but Boston’s bat are producing a MLB-best .270 average and 551 runs scored (5.35/game), and the Red Sox are #2 in home runs with 140. The Yankees (5.20 runs per game) and three other division leading teams round out the top-5 highest-scoring teams in baseball – Indians (5.16), Cubs (5.09) and defending World Series champion Astros (5.08).

The sports books continue to inflate the money lines on these top teams, but Boston continues to roll up the runs and exceed linemaker expectations. The high prices often greater than -180 on Boston and the best teams have not deterred bettors, who also play the run line (RL) as well (lay -1.5 runs).

And no team has been better than Boston in winning games by 2 or more runs. The Red Sox have not only won a MLB-best 23+ units on the money line (ML) for bettors who bet on Boston, but also have produced a baseball-best 61-42 record in games decided by 2 or more runs. That’s produced more than 19 units of additional profit for bettors who bet Boston on the run line.

Boston’s run line results are some of the most powerful in baseball over the past decade. The Red Sox are 13-4 in its last 17 games laying -1.5 runs and 20-8 in its last 28. The Red Sox remarkable run line record hit its peak prior to the All Star game when Boston 20 victories prior to the All-Star break produced a record of 20-0 on the run line, as Boston buried each of those opponents by 2 or more runs. Boston was a favorite in 18 of those victories to an average line of -191.

"No team has been better than Boston in winning games by 2 or more runs."

The Red Sox are a MLB-best 34-13 at home, where they return July 26 for a 10-game home stand with the final four against the rival Yankees. In the Red Sox two recent home stands over the past month, they went 6-1 are 5-1, averaging 6.46 runs per game. Fenway Park is rated as the No. 4 hitter park in the majors.

The odds on baseball games and teams fluctuate during the course of a day as lines are released by the bookmakers and wagers placed by bettors. An example of how a run line can differ is provided below for games on July 25. Boston (-180) and Cleveland (-215) and the LA Angels (-220) are the three biggest favorites of the day. Yet their run lines vary, and the influence of Boston’s success is prevalent at one particular leading online bookmaker that inflates lines on favorites.

Boston at Baltimore – Red Sox Run Line (-120)

Pittsburgh at Cleveland – Indians Run Line (-115)

Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles – Angels Run Line (-115)

Time will tell if Boston and their big bats will continue to produce such strong results. But understand that if you bet on Boston and the top teams in baseball, you’ll pay a premium on the betting lines as they continue to win and produce.