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Braves vs. Astros: World Series Game 6 betting odds, preview, and prediction

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

November 2nd, 2021

The Atlanta Braves squandered their chance to become the first team since 2013 to clinch the World Series in their own ballpark, but they could still pop the champagne at Minute Maid Park after Game 6 against the Houston Astros on Tuesday night.

Max Fried will toe the rubber for the Braves on five days’ rest, while the Astros’ Luis Garcia wheels back on three days’ rest for Game 6 after Game 2 starter Jose Urquidy was used in relief in Game 5. As has been the case for most of this World Series, expect both bullpens to see plenty of action.

Here’s our wagering preview of what could be the final game of the 117th Fall Classic.

Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros, 8:09 p.m. ET, FOX

Wed, November 3 2021, 12:09 AM

HOU Astros

Moneyline

-130

Run Line

-1.5

Total

O 9

ATL Braves

Moneyline

+110

Run Line

+1.5

Total

U 9

The Braves look like a nicely-priced underdog in Game 6 with staff ace Fried on the mound in what should be a low-scoring affair.

Fried’s statline from his start in Game 2 isn’t pretty (six earned runs over five innings), but he was the victim of some bad luck in the second inning that could immediately correct itself, as seen when he sat down his final 10 batters in a row before getting the hook from Atlanta manager Brian Snitker.

Fried was baseball’s best second-half starter (1.74 ERA), and pitched brilliantly in his first two playoff starts this year (two earned runs over 12 combined innings). Much like in Game 3’s victory behind Ian Anderson, the Braves’ plan is probably for their starter to go five frames before handing things off to A.J. Minter, Tyler Matzek, Luke Jackson, and Will Smith in some order for the final four. Those four bullpen arms have been very reliable for much of this postseason for the Braves, and all but Minter have had two days of rest.

Garcia is likely to be on a very tight leash in this must-win game for Houston. How far manager Dusty Baker lets him go will be key in determining the outcome of Game 6. If Garcia pitches like he did in Game 6 of the ALCS (5 2/3 innings, no runs on one hit and a walk), the Astros will benefit immensely. But if he pitches like he did in Game 3 of this series (3 2/3 innings, one earned run on three hits and four walks), Houston will be hard-pressed to avoid elimination.

The Astros’ relief corps seems the more overtaxed of the two despite the Braves going with back-to-back bullpen games in Games 4 and 5. Phil Maton has thrown in four of the first five World Series games, tossing 17 pitches in Game 4, and 29 in Game 5. Kendall Graveman threw 37 pitches in Game 5, and Ryan Pressly was avoided in Game 5 after hurling 33 pitches in Game 4.

This game will be like a tightrope walk for Baker, making the Astros tough to take as the betting favorite.

MLB pick: Braves +110, Under 9 runs


Player prop pick: Austin Riley Over 0.5 Hits (-177)

Austin Riley has been dealing damage from the heart of the Braves’ lineup in the World Series, and don’t expect him to cool off in Game 6.

Riley is 8-for-21 with three doubles and three RBI thus far this Fall Classic, including his game-winning RBI double off Garcia in Game 3. He’s likely looking forward to this matchup once more.

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