Manny Machado Signing Brings Padres Down To +5000 in MLB Futures

Profile Picture: Adam Spradling

February 19th, 2019

Signing Manny Machado to a 10 year / $300 million deal was enough to move the San Diego Padres from +8000 in 2019 World Series futures all the way down to +5000. That still makes the Padres a longshot to go all the way this season, but at least they're the talk of the town for the time being. There's no doubt that this is a massive deal, but is it a good one for San Diego?

Padres Are Investing in the Long-Term

Manny Machado is just 26 years old, meaning that the Padres will have him for the bulk of his prime unless they decide to trade him (and he agrees). Anyone and everyone that's been close to baseball knows that there is money to be had, so debating as to whether or not this is a "good deal" is a bit multi-faceted. On the surface, $300 million is an insane amount of money. But if you're San Diego, you have to spend in order to be competitive.

That's what the Padres did last year by dishing out $144 million over 8 years to Eric Hosmer, who is just 29 years old. The move didn't pan out exceptionally well for San Diego, who finished 28th in the league offensively and at the bottom of the NL West with just 66 wins. That was less wins than they had in 2017 before signing Hosmer.

But it's no secret that San Diego has arguably the best farm team in baseball. If and when they decide to reap the harvest from their young crop of talent, Machado will still be relatively young and playing in his prime, barring injury. They'll be stacked. It will just take time for this team to morph and mature in to what it will be down the road. If only we could bet on the 2024 World Series today.

The NL West seems like an unlikely place for teams to be tossing around all the spare change they have, but that's the nature of this division. The LA Dodgers will have a near-$200 million payroll, while the Arizona Diamondbacks are always lurking around ready to pay someone like Zack Grienke a $34.4 AAV. Now, the Padres are fully invested in a 5-8 year window where they are going to be competing for the sport's ultimate prize. How quickly they get there is up to the development of their prospects.

2019 World Series Favorites Unfazed

The good news for the teams that are already favored to win the World Series is that Machado hasn't gone to any one of them.
Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees
Houston Astros +650
Los Angeles Dodgers +750
Chicago Cubs +1100
Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies

Cleveland Indians
St. Louis Cardinals

Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego is still very far off the pace of the real contenders. The Dodgers and Astros remain the favorites to come out of the National League, while the Yankees and defending champion Red Sox top the World Series market. All for good reason. It will be a while before the Padres are really benefiting from this massive, $300 million deal for Manny Machado.

Table Now Set For Bryce Harper and Others

All off-season long, you haven't been able to mention Manny Machado without Brycer Harper in the same breath. The Philadelphia Phillies, who are already amongst a trio of teams with +1200 odds to win the World Series (along with Atlanta and Cleveland), remain the favorite to sign Harper. A lot of other suitors, such as the Chicago White Sox, have distinctly said that they won't go north of $300 million for the former MVP's services.

Now that the market has been set by this enormous Machado signing, Harper's representation has the momentum and qualifying parameters he needs to further negotiations.

And somewhere in the distance, guys like Mookie Betts and Mike Trout are celebrating this absurdly lucrative contract the same way that the Padres, their fans and Manny Machado himself all are.