LeBlanc Makes Seattle's MLB Odds Hard To Stomach Saturday

Profile Picture: TwinSpires Staff

TwinSpires Staff

August 9th, 2018

The Seattle Mariners (66-50 SU) are trying to keep pace in the AL West and wild card chase, and the Mariners snapped out of a mini-skid Thursday by winning the opening game of the series against the Astros 8-6 while literally rinsing Justin Verlander early on. Seattle still trails Houston by 7 full games in the AL West, and are also behind Oakland by 2.5 games for the second wild card playoff spot. Their MLB odds on Saturday will be hard to back considering the pitching matchup.

Seattle had gone 2-7 in their last nine games until Thursday’s victory, but a regression was anticipated entering August as the Seattle Mariners OPS numbers did not support their record and potential pitching problems have now surfaced as well. The Mariners have allowed 5 or more runs in eight of their last 10 games.

SEATTLE MARINERS VS. HOUSTON ASTROS - Saturday, August 11th Starting Pitchers: W. LeBlanc (SEA) vs. C. Morton (HOU) -Seattle is 6-4 SU in last 10 games when LeBlanc starts -Houston has won 67% of their matchups against the AL West -Houston is 7-3 SU in last 10 games when Morton starts Saturday, August 11th looks like another shot to take a swing against a Seattle starter. Houston will be a big favorite near -200 in weekend MLB odds with Charlie Morton on the mound, and both a run line play and team total is worthy of a wager on Houston as they are expected to hammer Wade LeBlanc.

LeBlanc is a soft tossing left-hander who has a misleading 3.81 ERA. That number is up from 3.19 the first week of July, and his xERA of near 5.3 is more reflective of reality. There are a number of hit and miss starts for LeBlanc over the past two months, and his 8%/33% dominant start/disaster start season split suggests he can be ripe to get ripped by even average hitting teams. His good starts however have been against weak hitting teams like the Rangers and White Sox.

Just two starts ago against these same powerful Astros hitters, LeBlanc was whacked for 7 runs in 4.1 innings. Included in that 10-hit barrage was 3 home runs. LeBlanc’s control is excellent, but his skills are not. His strikeout rate and swinging strike rate are both poor because the guy throws 87 MPH, resulting in a swinging strike rate of 5% over his last 10 starts. The Astros have some strong batting splits against left-handers with a .269 average, .450 slugging and .788 OPS. Saturday looks like a long day (or short stint) for LeBlanc against these Astros hitters again.

MLB Odds & Picks - A projected total by the bookmaker is 9.0 for this match-up in MLB odds. We’ll take a strong swing on the Astros team total over 5.5. Should you play the side, take the Astros on the run line (-1.5 runs).