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MLB picks: Astros vs. Yankees, Brewers vs. Phillies

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

May 4th, 2021

Let’s look at the best available bets in baseball for Tuesday night!

We’ll preview the first meeting between the Houston Astros and New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium since the infamous sign-stealing scandal, before segueing to a matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies.

Houston Astros (15-13) at New York Yankees (14-14), 7:05 p.m. ET

Tue, May 4 2021, 11:05 PM

NY Yankees

Moneyline

-122

Spread

-1.5

Total

O 9

HOU Astros

Moneyline

+104

Spread

+1.5

Total

U 9

The Yankees climbed back to .500 for the first time since April 12 (5-5) with a weekend sweep of the Detroit Tigers, but the Astros should knock them below that mark again on Tuesday night.

Zack Greinke starts for Houston, and his last two efforts against the Yankees – both from 2019 – were solid outings. He allowed just three earned runs in total while holding the Bombers to a .163 batting average over 12 2/3 innings. Giancarlo Stanton is a modest 3-for-18 (.167) all-time against Greinke with one home run and eight strikeouts.

Backing up Greinke is a Houston bullpen that’s excelled at keeping runners off base over the last two weeks – they’re sixth in WHIP (1.07) in that span.

Domingo German counters for New York in this spot. While he has two quality starts to his credit since being recalled from the minors, he was sent down for a reason even after just one subpar performance on April 4.

German is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in three career efforts (11 2/3 innings) against the ‘Stros. Yuli Gurriel has been particularly lethal against him – going 4-for-6 with a home run – so look for him to drive the offense for the visitors.

MLB pick: Astros +104


Milwaukee Brewers (17-12) at Philadelphia Phillies (14-15), 7:05 p.m. ET

Tue, May 4 2021, 11:05 PM

PHI Phillies

Moneyline

-165

Spread

-1.5

Total

O 7.5

MIL Brewers

Moneyline

+140

Spread

+1.5

Total

U 7.5

The total appears to be set far too low as the Brewers and Phillies continue their series at Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday night.

Perennial Cy Young contender Aaron Nola will be on the bump for Philadelphia, but the Brewers have given him serious problems lately. In his last two starts against them (dating back to 2018 due to the pandemic-altered 2020 campaign), Nola has surrendered seven earned runs in only 7 1/3 innings. His WHIP in that sample is an outrageous 2.59.

Christian Yelich is 8-for-20 (.400) with a homer all-time against Nola, while Lorenzo Cain – who went deep in his first game off the IL last night – is 3-for-3 with two doubles. Milwaukee’s offense should subsequently feast on a Phillies bullpen that’s 27th in the majors by ERA (6.41) over the last two weeks.

Eric Lauer – who blanked the Los Angeles Dodgers through five innings in his first start of the year at home – will try to repeat that performance on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Bryce Harper has a homer against Lauer in six prior meetings, and Andrew McCutchen is 5-for-8 off Lauer lifetime.

The Over is 9-4 in the Phillies’ last 13 home games, and 5-2 in the Brewers’ last seven overall.

MLB pick: Over

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