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MLB picks: Dodgers vs. Mariners, Brewers vs. Padres

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

April 19th, 2021

Baseball bettors have six games to choose from this Monday evening – we narrowed things down to our top two selections.

First, we’ll take a look at an interleague series opener between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Seattle Mariners. Then it’s off to a late-night National League matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres.

Los Angeles Dodgers (13-3) at Seattle Mariners (10-6), 10:10 p.m. ET

Tue, April 20 2021, 2:10 AM

SEA Mariners

Moneyline

+170

Spread

+1.5

Total

O 8.5

LA Dodgers

Moneyline

-200

Spread

-1.5

Total

U 8.5

The Mariners have a good chance to hand the Dodgers a rare loss at T-Mobile Park on Monday night.

Justus Sheffield starts for Seattle, and while it’s a tall task for him to shut down L.A.’s potent offense entirely, the southpaw should enjoy some success on the mound here. The Dodgers are a modest 19th in OPS (.724) against lefties in 2021.

It’s tough to gauge Sheffield through two starts (4.91 ERA), but bettors should be encouraged by his home splits from 2020. He had a 2.43 ERA and a strikeout/walk ratio of above 4-to-1. Behind him is a bullpen that’s authored a major-league best 0.46 ERA over the last seven days.

Responding for L.A. is Dustin May. He’ll have to pitch carefully to a Mariners lineup that’s 5-2 in it’s last seven games against right-handed starters. The Dodgers bullpen has shown some signs of weakness lately, stranding just 69.2% of runners over the last week (22nd).

Look for Mitch Haniger – who sports a 1.234 OPS over the last seven days – to drive the Seattle scoring.

MLB pick: Mariners +170


Milwaukee Brewers (8-7) at San Diego Padres (10-7), 10:10 p.m. ET

Tue, April 20 2021, 2:10 AM

SD Padres

Moneyline

-148

Spread

-1.5

Total

O 6.5

MIL Brewers

Moneyline

+125

Spread

+1.5

Total

U 6.5

We’re not calling for an offensive explosion in the Brewers/Padres series opener, but Over bettors have plenty of margin for error and should cash here.

Joe Musgrove, who recently threw the first no-hitter in San Diego franchise history, has allowed only one earned run through 19 innings of work. This pace is obviously unsustainable, especially for a pitcher who owns a career ERA of 4.19.

Milwaukee owns a respectable road OPS of .709, 12th in the majors. Travis Shaw’s .982 OPS in road games this year catches the eye. Also getting hot at the plate are outfielders Avisail Garcia and Jackie Bradley Jr., who have combined to go 16-for-46 (.348) over the last seven days.

It’s tough to find fault with Brandon Woodruff and his 2.12 ERA, but the Padres should be good for a run or two against him with Manny Machado (six hits in the Dodgers series) and Eric Hosmer (12-for-35 last nine games) on fire at the dish.

Add to this that both the Padres and Brewers bullpens are in the bottom third by ERA over the last week, and it’s a formula for an Over.

MLB pick: Over

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