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MLB picks: Padres vs. Reds, Giants vs. Diamondbacks

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

July 1st, 2021

It’s another busy Thursday in baseball, but bettors would be wise to keep an eye on the weather, with rain threatening several games. We’ve highlighted our two favorite plays for the evening, which should take place under clear skies.

Let’s start with the series finale between the San Diego Padres and the Cincinnati Reds, then switch to an NL West battle between the San Francisco Giants and the Arizona Diamondbacks.

San Diego Padres (49-33) at Cincinnati Reds (39-40), 7:10 p.m. ET

Thu, July 1 2021, 11:10 PM

CIN Reds

Moneyline

-121

Spread

+1.5

Total

O 9

SD Padres

Moneyline

+102

Spread

-1.5

Total

U 9

The Padres have won 11 of their last 12 games, with six of those victories against the Reds. They’ll go for the sweep of the season series at Great American Ball Park on Thursday night against sliding Cincinnati (4-9 last 13 games).

Ryan Weathers will get the nod for San Diego, after starts against the Cubs earlier last month went awry. But when he was limited to just three innings at Coors Field, when last seen at the major-league level, Weathers held the Rockies to just one run.

Bettors should expect an outing of similar length for Weathers, before the Padres’ powerhouse bullpen (2.86 ERA, tops in the majors in 2021) takes over. Closer Mark Melancon has six saves during this outstanding Friars run.

Luis Castillo will counter for the Reds, and while June saw a return to form for “La Piedra” (1.71 ERA in five starts), it’s hard to envision the Cincinnati bullpen holding up its end of the bargain once he departs. This unit ranks last in the majors for ERA (5.45).

Tommy Pham is swinging a hot bat at the moment (9-for-18 and three home runs in the last seven days), so look for him to lead the way on offense for the Padres.

MLB pick: Padres +102


San Francisco Giants (50-29) at Arizona Diamondbacks (22-60), 9:40 p.m. ET

Fri, July 2 2021, 1:40 AM

ARI Diamondbacks

Moneyline

+125

Spread

+1.5

Total

O 9

SF Giants

Moneyline

-148

Spread

-1.5

Total

U 9

It’s risky business to bet on the Diamondbacks, but there’s a reason they aren’t huge underdogs against the 50-win Giants at Chase Field on Thursday night. Arizona bettors can also minimize their risk by getting a little creative.

The D-backs appear to have the starting-pitching edge, as Johnny Cueto will go for San Francisco against Merrill Kelly. Cueto hasn’t been nearly as effective on the road as he has been at home in 2021, with his ERA as the visitor 4.97, compared to 2.81 at Oracle Park.

Josh Rojas and Christian Walker — 10-for-27 and 11-for-27, respectively, over their last seven games — should drive the Diamondbacks offense.

Kelly owns a 3.53 ERA at home this season and has allowed just one earned run over his last 13 innings. His bullpen is not to be trusted (dead-last by ERA over the last two weeks, at 7.09), but Arizona looks like a strong bet in the first five innings market.

MLB pick: Diamondbacks +118 (first five innings)

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