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MLB picks: Phillies vs. Braves, Padres vs. Dodgers

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

September 30th, 2021

Let’s take a look at two divisional matchups from the senior circuit on the final Thursday of the MLB regular season!

Leading off is our look at a meeting between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves. Then we’ll preview a matchup between the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Philadelphia Phillies (81-77) at Atlanta Braves (85-72), 7:20 p.m. ET

Thu, September 30 2021, 11:20 PM

ATL Braves

Moneyline

-155

Run Line

-1.5

Total

O 8.5

PHI Phillies

Moneyline

+128

Run Line

+1.5

Total

U 8.5

The Braves’ superior pitching staff should enable them to walk away with a victory over the Phillies at Truist Park on Thursday night.

Kyle Gibson gets the nod for Philadelphia, looking to lower his 7.16 ERA earned through five starts in September. Based on his inflated 4.29 ERA and 1.378 WHIP on the road this season, that is unlikely to happen in this one.

Once Gibson departs, the Phillies’ struggling bullpen – 26th by ERA over the last two weeks (4.95) – will take over. Look for Austin Riley – batting .356 over his last 15 games with three homers and 14 RBI – to lead the way on offense for Atlanta.

Ian Anderson counters for the Braves, fresh off seven shutout innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks last Wednesday. He’s taken on the Phillies four times in 2021, authoring a solid 3.09 ERA and 1.114 WHIP. Backing him up is the Braves’ top-ranked bullpen by ERA over the last two weeks (2.27).

MLB pick: Braves -155


San Diego Padres (78-80) at Los Angeles Dodgers (102-56), 10:10 p.m. ET

Fri, October 1 2021, 2:10 AM

LA Dodgers

Moneyline

-240

Run Line

-1.5

Total

O 9

SD Padres

Moneyline

+195

Run Line

+1.5

Total

U 9

The Dodgers should record another one-sided home victory against the free-falling Padres on Thursday night.

Vince Velasquez is unlikely to pick up a San Diego squad that’s lost five in a row and 10 of 11 games based on his 11.22 ERA over his last eight outings. Behind him is a Friars relief corps that sports a 5.11 ERA over the last two weeks, 28th in the majors in that span. L.A. infielders Trea Turner and Corey Seager – a combined 23-for-52 (.442) over the last week – should continue their respective hot streaks at the plate here.

Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin owns some solid splits at home this year, putting up a 2.13 ERA and .196 opponent batting average over 25 1/3 innings. He’s unlikely to pitch very far into this game, but he can fall back on an L.A. bullpen that’s seventh by ERA over the last two weeks (2.79).

MLB pick: Dodgers -1.5 runs (-118)

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