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NLDS picks: Brewers vs. Braves, Giants vs. Dodgers

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

October 12th, 2021

The MLB postseason rolls on this Tuesday night with a pair of potentially-decisive NLDS Game 4s!

First, the Milwaukee Brewers will attempt to punch their way off the ropes at Truist Park against the Atlanta Braves. Then the battle between the two big dogs of the NL West continues as the San Francisco Giants seek to knock out Los Angeles Dodgers on the road. We’ll preview both games below and give out our best bets!

Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves, 5:15 p.m. ET, TBS

Tue, October 12 2021, 9:15 PM

ATL Braves

Moneyline

-136

Run Line

-1.5

Total

O 8.5

MIL Brewers

Moneyline

+114

Run Line

+1.5

Total

U 8.5

Pitching has had the upper hand through the first three games of this series between the Brewers and Braves, with just nine total runs coming across. It’s on pace to be the lowest-scoring divisional series in MLB history. The Brewers haven’t scored in 19 consecutive innings, and could become just the third team since 1903 to be shut out in three consecutive postseason games, joining the 1905 A’s and 1966 Dodgers. Bettors shouldn’t count on this potentially-historic Under trend continuing here.

Neither team has named a starter for Game 4, but Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell did rule out Game 1 starter Corbin Burnes on short rest. That may mean lefty Eric Lauer will have the assignment against a righty-heavy Atlanta lineup. If Lauer indeed starts, look for Braves third baseman Austin Riley (4-for-12, one home run in this series) to continue his hot-hitting ways here.

Regardless of who toes the rubber for Milwaukee, Joc Pederson – who has two pinch-hit homers in this series – is a threat at the dish for Atlanta.

Meanwhile, Charlie Morton is expected to start on short rest (or follow an opener in A.J. Minter) for just the second time in his career, and first since 2008. “Ground Chuck” has won four postseason clinchers in the last four years alone, but this move has the potential to backfire on Braves manager Brian Snitker.

MLB pick: Over


San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, 9:07 p.m. ET, TBS

Wed, October 13 2021, 1:07 AM

LA Dodgers

Moneyline

-152

Run Line

-1.5

Total

O 7.5

SF Giants

Moneyline

+128

Run Line

+1.5

Total

U 7.5

Anthony DeSclafani and the Giants have a good chance to end this series against the Dodgers and help underdog players cash.

DeSclafani’s numbers against L.A. this year are inflated from a disastrous start against them on May 23 (10 earned runs over 2 2/3 innings), but bettors shouldn’t rely on that to be predictive. In his last start against the Dodgers on Sept. 3, DeSclafani blanked their lineup over six frames. It was part of a sensational last six starts of the regular season, in which he authored a 2.25 ERA.

If the Giants can hold the lead until Camilo Doval (no earned runs last 17 1/3 innings pitched) enters, it could be lights-out for Los Angeles.

The Dodgers have yet to announce a starter for Game 4, but Tony Gonsolin is expected to see at least a little work. He nearly torpedoed the chances of his team to win the World Series last year, producing an 8.68 ERA over nine playoff innings, and was rocked for three runs over 4 2/3 frames in his lone outing against San Francisco this year.

MLB pick: Giants +128

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