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Red Sox vs. Astros: ALCS Game 6 betting odds, preview, and prediction

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

October 22nd, 2021

The Houston Astros took a pivotal Game 5 at Fenway Park in blowout fashion against the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday, and now they have the chance to deal the deathblow in Game 6 at Minute Maid Park on Friday night.

The Red Sox will turn to staff ace Nathan Eovaldi in this win-or-go-home affair, while Luis Garcia will try to avoid leading his Astros into a decisive Game 7. Below is our betting preview for this crucial postseason contest.

Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros, 8:08 p.m. ET, FS1

Sat, October 23 2021, 12:08 AM

HOU Astros

Moneyline

-112

Run Line

+1.5

Total

O 9

BOS Red Sox

Moneyline

-109

Run Line

-1.5

Total

U 9

The Astros may not have the edge in the starting pitching battle, but they look like a good bet to wrap up this ALCS nonetheless.

Boston’s Nathan Eovaldi pitched a decent 5 1/3 innings in Game 2 of this series, allowing three earned runs, before getting shelled for four runs in only 2/3 of an inning in a Game 4 relief outing. It’s possible that Houston may just have his number, but Eovaldi had an AL-best 2.79 FIP in the regular season, and he guided his team to victories in both the AL Wild Card Game (one earned run over 5 1/3 innings) and ALDS Game 3 (two earned runs over five innings).

Between Eovaldi and Luis Garcia (who we’ll get to in a moment), the former has the better chance of putting in a good start.

However, the Red Sox relief corps is still a cause for concern. High-leverage men Ryan Brasier and Hansel Robles sport a 9.00 and 5.06 ERA, respectively, and no Boston bullpen piece has looked untouchable for long stretches in the postseason.   

Garcia can’t pitch much worse than he did in Game 2, surrendering five earned runs in just one inning of work. The 24-year-old rookie showed promise in the regular season (3.30 ERA), but he simply hasn’t delivered in his first two playoff performances (24.55 ERA).

However, bettors should expect Garcia to be on a very tight leash, with Houston’s rested bullpen ready to go. Cristian Javier (no earned runs over 7 2/3 innings) has been effective in long relief appearances this postseason, and manager Dusty Baker has four late-inning arms (Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton, Kendall Graveman, and Ryan Pressly) he can turn to sporting ERAs below 2.00.

The Red Sox were held to three combined runs in their last two home games, and now their 16th-ranked road offense (4.54 runs per game) will have to step up to avoid elimination. The Astros boast the fifth-best home offense (5.32 runs per game) from the regular season.

MLB pick: Astros -112


Player prop pick: Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Hits (-215)

Yordan Alvarez played the finest postseason game of his young career in Game 5 of this ALCS, gathering three hits – including a home run – and three RBI. It’s easy to see him getting into the hit column once more in Game 6.

Alvarez is batting .367 for the postseason, with eight hits in his first 19 at-bats of this series. He had good numbers at home this year, batting .284 compared to .271 on the road. Alvarez also hit .350 during the regular campaign against the Red Sox (20 at-bats).

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