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World Series odds update: Padres swinging for the fences

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

December 30th, 2020

While many of baseball’s biggest free agents are playing the waiting game, San Diego Padres general manager A.J. Preller decided to push the envelope and engineer a pair of trades for frontline starting pitching.

Blake Snell — a Cy Young winner in 2018 — and 2020 NL Cy Young runner-up Yu Darvish will now don the yellow and brown.

Let's examine the Padres’ movement in the World Series futures market, following these blockbusters, and determine if they’re a good bet.

World Series 2021

Tue, November 2 2021, 11:00 PM

Los Angeles Dodgers

+450

New York Yankees

+550

San Diego Padres

+900

Atlanta Braves

+1000

Chicago White Sox

+1300

New York Mets

+1400

Minnesota Twins

+1500

Tampa Bay Rays

+1500

Houston Astros

+1800

Oakland Athletics

+1800

San Diego’s price slides two points

The Padres are now the third choice to win the World Series at +900, behind the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Yankees. The Padres were +1100, and behind the Atlanta Braves, before the moves to acquire Snell and Darvish.

Adding starting pitching, while sacrificing no top-line prospects and a mere No. 3-type starter in Zach Davies, was a boon for a hitting-rich San Diego squad. Mike Clevinger is expected to miss the 2021 campaign, after Tommy John surgery, but the Padres’ rotation still packs a punch, with Snell, Darvish, Dinelson Lamet, and Chris Paddack all in line for 30 starts.

The Friars lineup ranked fourth in baseball by OPS in 2020. Stars like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jake Cronenworth will all be back in 2021.

Dodgers still the kings of the NL West

Standing in San Diego’s way are the Dodgers, the 2020 World Series champions who have scored eight straight NL West titles. The Padres have not won the division since 2006.

L.A. doesn’t appear to be going anywhere, as it still has one of baseball’s most talented lineups, with Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger, and Corey Seager. Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler continue to comprise a solid one-two punch at the top of the Dodgers rotation, and Julio Urias is a “Swiss Army knife” that most clubs would love to have in their rotation or bullpen.

It’s difficult to accept +900 on the Padres, when they’re not even the best team in their division.

Look out for the Mets

As the sixth choice in this market, at +1400, the New York Mets have shown plenty of aggressiveness with their offseason moves. They inked catcher James McCann to a four-year, $40.6 million contract and signed relief pitcher Trevor May to a two-year, $15.5 million deal.

The Mets have also been linked to NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer and All-Star outfielder George Springer, among others. New York has the newest and richest owner in baseball, Steve Cohen, who has made no bones about his desire to field a winning ballclub.

Bettors should assume the Mets will continue to be active in free agency, and that their odds will take another hit before Opening Day.


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