UFC 244: Jorge Masvidal vs. Nate Diaz preview and pick

Profile Picture: Danny Howard

October 30th, 2019

A big fight between the UFC's most recognizable stars is upon us as Jorge Masvidal and Nate Diaz look to settle their rivalry in the main event of UFC 244 on Saturday, November 2 at Madison Square Garden. The supporting acts on the card features a crossroads clash between Kelvin Gastelum and Darren Till among other fights on a card that promises high drama.

Jorge Masvidal vs. Nate Diaz UFC 244 odds

FighterUFC 244 Odds
Jorge Masvidal
Nate Diaz
Both men are coming off impressive wins in their last performance, particularly Diaz ending a three-year layoff with a great win over Anthony Pettis, and are heading towards a violent night in the cage. While both fighters come off as evenly matched and looking to batter each other, this is going to be a fight won by stamina.

Masvidal’s lighting-fast victory of Ben Askren is not happening here and he’s going to have to take the fight to Diaz in hopes that he can gas him out. Showing no signs of ring rust against Pettis, Diaz will be quick to oblige and a fight will break out as soon as the two get warmed up.
Diaz has a better ground game to go along with his striking and can give Masvidal plenty to worry about. Once Diaz does get on the inside, he can either work Masvidal over with his excellent inside fighting or try and take him down to work his jiu-jitsu to lock in a chokehold and call it a night.

That will be easier said than done, especially as Masvidal has looked nothing short of fantastic in his last two bouts. Askren aside, Masvidal has never looked fundamentally better in his game when he took apart Darren Till in two rounds after a rocky start. In many ways, Diaz is going to play right into Masvidal’s patient style and can give him the opening he needs to land his best shots.

The bad blood between the two will spill over, but a tepid start will work in Masvidal’s favor as he looks for holes in Diaz’s offense and slows the tempo. While Diaz might get outworked early on, his pressure and ground game is going to force Masvidal out of his comfort zone and right into Diaz’s punches.

Though Masvidal has looked solid, Diaz has more tools and that will show over the course of their five-round clash. Expect Masvidal to start off well, but once Diaz gets in his rhythm and inside Masvidal’s reach, he’s going to work him over and stop him inside the distance.

MMA free pick: Diaz (+130)

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Darren Till

Gastelum’s faster hands and proven toughness at middleweight makes him a risky choice for Till’s first fight at the weight class. If Gastelum doesn’t stop him, he will win every round and pick up an easy decision.

MMA free pick: Gastelum (-205)

Stephen Thompson vs. Vicente Luque

“Wonderboy” has gone winless over the last two years, but the green Luque presents a chance to get back in the win column. Thompson could end things early, but Luque will survive and will take him down for a submission win.

MMA free pick: Luque (+105)

Kevin Lee vs. Gregor Gillespie

In a crossroads match, Lee is returning to lightweight against the streaking Gillespie. Lee’s overreliance on his long reach against Gillespie’s pressure will tire him out and Gillespie’s streak will continue with a close decision.

MMA free pick: Gillespie (-180)

Derrick Lewis vs. Blagoy Ivanov

These battle-tested bangers can end proceedings rather quickly, and there’s a good chance they’ll be dropping bombs early. Lewis’ height and reach advantage over Ivanov gives him the best chance to do that and stop him in the last round.

MMA free pick: Lewis (+105)

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