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UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 betting odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Danny Howard

Danny Howard

November 2nd, 2021

Kamaru Usman is set to go toe-to-toe with Colby Covington in the UFC 268 main event on Saturday, Nov. 6, and there will be blood. Let's examine this heated grudge match, beginning with the latest betting odds.

Sun, November 7 2021, 4:30 AM

Usman, Kamaru

Moneyline

-335

Covington, Colby

Moneyline

+250

Usman continues the rematch gauntlet

After having beaten everyone before winning the welterweight title, then beating the rest defending it, Usman has little to do now aside from revisiting his greatest hits. The first time Usman and Covington fought back at UFC 235, it was a thrilling contest, with Usman overwhelming and stopping Covington.

In that fight, Usman landed 48% of his significant strikes and scored two knockdowns. After a chippy first round, Usman broke Covington down. Though he won, fighting Covington sure felt like fighting a near identical version of himself.

Usman vs. Covington tale of the tape

Kamaru Usmanvs.Colby Covington
19-1
Record
16-2
34
Age
33
6'0"
Height
5'11"
76"
Reach
72"
5-0
Last 5 Fights
4-1

Covington is a big threat

After the loss, Covington switched camps and bludgeoned Tyron Woodley, outlanding him at more than a 2-to-1 rate before stopping him. This was Covington’s first fight with a new training staff, and he looked fantastic.

Absent from the first fight was Covington’s formidable ground game, as he opted to slug it out with Usman and got the better of him in the early exchanges. Whether Covington implements a new strategy in favor of tweaking his previous one is yet to be seen, but he can’t survive a prolonged firefight with Usman.

Wash, rinse, repeat. Usman will prevail by KO again

Usman is the worst fighter to give a second look to. The always improving champion makes adjustments on the fly and isn’t lazy, so he knows exactly what to expect. While Usman will struggle at times with Covington, "The Nigerian Nightmare" is slightly better in every aspect.

In the Jorge Masvidal rematch, Usman went right for it and hit the "Goodnight Irene" shot that left no doubt of his superiority. It would be a huge shock if Usman sparked Covington out in the same manner, but he will exploit a weakness he uncovered in their first bout.

Until someone extraordinary comes along, Usman will remain champion. Of course, Covington won’t see his stock drop if he’s unable to topple his rival, but he is not likely to reach the final bell. Expect the second verse to sound a lot like the first, with a tested battle early turning into an Usman stoppage late.

UFC 268 pick: Usman

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