UFC Fight Night 146 - Derrick Lewis vs. Junior dos Santos

Profile Picture: Adam Spradling

March 8th, 2019

A six-fight main event awaits you on Saturday Night and we break down the UFC Fight Night 146 odds so you're prepared to kick off a a raucous Saturday Night!

Considering that Derrick Lewis just fought for the heavyweight title, Junior dos Santos may be a lot closer to knocking on the doorstep of a title shot than one might believe. Is he worthy of leap frogging Francis Ngannou and getting a shot at Daniel Cormier? A big showing on Saturday night in front of a national audience might do the trick. We have all that and more as we cover the UFC Fight Night 146 odds for the main card!

Junior dos Santos -220 over Derrick Lewis +170

The former heavyweight champion, and a guy who just lost his shot at the belt against Daniel Cormier. It was a rough outing for Lewis during his last time in the octagon, where he was purely outclassed by the reigning champ while suffering his first submission victory. This could be another night of firsts for the The Black Beast. He could very well be in store for his first set of back-to-back losses if you trust the UFC Fight Night 146 odds.

Lewis is an easy fighter to get behind. He's lovable, candid, and packs a mean punch. His post-fight interviews are legendary. Still, it's entirely fair to say that he also had no business beating Alexander Volkov, but that's the nature of the fight game at the heavyweight standard. If you can last a few minutes, or long enough to land one, then you have a shot to win.

The problem with wagering on this fight is that it's impossible to really pinpoint where Junior dos Santos is in his career. He's just 35 years old, but also feels like his best days are behind him. The clash of styles is a bit of a nightmare for Lewis since dos Santos is still regarded as one of the best boxers and strikers in the entirety of the UFC. My fear is that dos Santos lets Lewis hang around in this matchup too long.

But I also firmly believe that Junior has a strategy in play here. If anyone can suss out a weakness in Lewis's ballistic tactics, it's dos Santos, a cerebral striker who is coming off a two wins through 2018 after losing a heavyweight title match against Stipe back in 2017. There are concerns here, but dos Santos is the play, even at his hefty UFC Fight Night 146 odds.

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos +100 over Curtis Millender -125

The other dos Santos (no relation) is on a blinding, six-fight win streak since his debut in the UFC didn't go as planned with a split decision loss against Nicolas Dalby. He's a sensationally entertaining fighter that's daring to step in to the lion's den by taking on Millender, who deserves to be favored in UFC Fight Night 146 odds. Being so high on the card is going to put both competitors in a blazing spotlight. Given what's at stake for both, dos Santos simply profiles as a character who'd thrive on a bigger stage. This is a coin flip, and I'm going with the side that's got a little more margin built in to it.

Niko Price +155 over Tim Means -200

Price may be coming off a loss, but Means is not as solid of a bet as his UFC Fight Night 146 odds would indicate. He ended Ricky Rainey with a flurry of fists in November 2018, but also lost two split decisions to Sergio Moraes and Belal Muhammad prior to that. Price is a nice play to risk with here at +155, and really brings the fight to his opponents. He's the type that takes too many chances, with some not paying out. I'm betting that he's worth the risk this Saturday night. This isn't the type of card with fully known commodities where you through your wallet around. Play it tight and try to catch a flier.

Blagoy Ivanov -135 over Ben Rothwell +105

Both fighters have lost to Junior dos Santos in their last outings will clash, and everyone's looking for Big Ben Rothwell to rediscover the form he showed three years ago when he was scalping Matt Mitrione in 2015 and Alistair Overeem in 2014. It's been over two years since we've seen Rothwell in action because he failed a drug test that kicked in a two-year suspension. Is Rothwell any good anymore? Who knows. What I do know is that fighters who have crested 35 and been inactive for this long don't bear fruit too often, so Ivanov is the play.

Beneil Dariush -200 over Drew Dober +155

Beneil's odds here tell the whole story. Don't overthink it. Don't get too concerned. Just use his -200 UFC Fight Night 146 odds however you want. Maybe you risk a lot to return a little and you're happy. Use him as a parlay booster. He critically outclasses Dober in every conceivable way. Both have had up-and-down careers thus far at the top tier of the fight game, but Dariush is a more polished asset in the book.

Tim Boetsch +105 vs. Omari Akhmedov -135

It's likely that Boetsch gets his head taken off because that's what's happened to him in his last fight. Admittedly, Boetsch stole my heart back in 2012 when he blasted Yushin Okami in to another universe but that was many moons ago. Sometimes you lead with the heart, and the odds here are tight enough here to comfortably suggest that I'm not reaching for the moon. Omari has not been convincing during a 5-3-1 SU streak since landing with the promotion, and so I'll toss some spare change at his opponent's UFC Fight Night 146 odds, hoping that some knuckles land in the right place like they did in Japan. Some fighters just punch their way in to your souls. Boetsch did that to me. I'll ride him until he retires so do what you think is best. I'm not totally convinced that Akhmedov is that good, but I'm also pretty sure that Boetsch doesn't have much left to offer. If this is the last time I ride off in to the sunset with the man, then so be it.