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UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Felipe betting odds, preview, and pick

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October 12th, 2021

Former UFC Heavyweight Champion Andrei Arlovski will take on rising star Carlos Felipe in the co-feature of the Oct. 16 edition of UFC Fight Night. We have the preview and picks you’ll need ahead of their brawl.

Sun, October 17 2021, 12:45 AM

Arlovski, Andrei

Moneyline

-112

Felipe, Carlos

Moneyline

-112

Arlovski is a stern gatekeeper

"The Pit Bull" is long past his glory days, but he’s turned into a fighter who is working more with his high ring intelligence than his fading physical gifts. Arlovski stepped in on short notice to outwork Chase Sherman last April, weathering an early storm to frustrate his younger foe ahead of a decision win.

The former heavyweight champion was an accomplished striker, having scored 17 of his 31 wins by stoppage, but he hasn’t won a fight inside the distance since 2015. Even at his advanced age, Arlovski absorbs only 2.95 significant strikes per minute and doesn’t waste any of his energy while setting up his offense.

Andrei Arlovski vs. Carlos Felipe tale of the tape

Andrei Arlovskivs.Carlos Felipe
31-20
Record
11-1
42
Age
26
6'3"
Height
6'0"
77"
Reach
75"
3-2
Last 5 Fights
4-1
Power
Key Intangibles
Youth

Felipe needs a clear win

Brazilian bruiser Felipe struggled in his last two bouts, narrowly outpointing both Justin Tafa and Jake Collier in his two fights this year. Felipe enjoys an advantage in being 16 years younger than Arlovksi and fights with a high-volume style.

As a traditional volume puncher, Felipe often throws and lands plenty. His lack of power might be troubling, but he can overwhelm his opponents with activity and a respectable connection rate of 4.88 significant strikes per minute.

Arlovski will exploit Felipe’s poor defense

Arlovski isn’t going to try and keep pace with Felipe, but instead smother him along the octagon and opt for a punch and clutch strategy. It’s going to look ugly, but Arlovski can shut Felipe down this way since Felipe has no ground game to trouble him and seldom shoots for takedowns.

While Felipe is a busy fighter, he doesn’t hit hard enough to discourage his opponents from opening up on him, and his defense is borderline terrible. Shot for shot, Arlovski has the advantage in power, and the skill gap between them makes it all the easier to pick the geriatric gladiator.

Once Arlovski successfully disrupts Felipe's rhythm in the opening moments, he’ll continue to pick his spots and diffuse any return fire with clinches. Without the power or grappling prowess to stop him, Felipe will be outsmarted by Arlovski, who will win this bout by a comfortable decision.

UFC Fight Night pick: Arlovski

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