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UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum betting odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Danny Howard

Danny Howard

August 16th, 2021

A middleweight crossroads clash is the main attraction for the Aug. 21 edition of UFC Fight Night, as Jared Cannonier faces off against Kelvin Gastelum. We have the betting odds and pick you need for this showdown between two faltering contenders.

Sat, August 21 2021, 11:00 PM

Cannonier, Jared

Moneyline

-165

Gastelum, Kelvin

Moneyline

+133

Gastelum is a handful despite recent setbacks

Gastelum has made it a habit to step into fights that Paulo Costa steps out of. Most recently, Gastelum put up an honest effort in a lopsided loss to Robert Whittaker, putting him back in the "L" column after snapping a three-fight skid.

The scrappy Gastelum is as tough as they come, never relenting and always trying to force his opponents to the ground. While the majority of his recent losses have come against the best of the middleweight division, he’s fighting an opponent who is more on his level than his recent conquerors.

Jared Cannonier vs. Kelvin Gastelum tale of the tape

Jared Cannoniervs.Kelvin Gastelum
13-5
Record
17-7
37
Age
29
5'11"
Height
5'9"
77.5"
Reach
71.5"
3-2
Last 5 Fights
1-4
Striking power
Key Intangibles
Conditioning

Cannonier has major advantages in power and size

On paper, Cannonier has all the advantages to suggest he’ll wipe Gastelum out. There are pronounced advantages in size, reach and striking power that should make him the prohibitive favorite.

Despite these many advantages, Cannonier hasn’t been able to put it all together. He was listless and looked out of his depth against Whittaker last October, but his power alone makes him dangerous if he can line Gastelum up for a big shot. 

Gastelum will hang on for an upset

There is only one path to victory for Gastelum, and that’s a wrestling-oriented strategy that seeks to test Cannonier’s endurance. If Gastelum tries to engage Cannonier, he’ll get sparked out by the first clean shot he eats. Because Gastelum is a mobile fighter, and he absolutely can take Cannonier down, he’s an attractive pick as an underdog.

Expect Cannonier to struggle to find a home for his overhand right against the slippery southpaw. As long as Gastelum doesn’t take too much punishment in the early rounds, he’ll be sure to wear Cannonier down over the course of the five-round bout. Cannonier’s takedown defense isn’t spectacular, so Gastelum will likely wrangle him as much as he can to force him to the ground.

This should be the night that Gastelum, the guy with the hardest luck in middleweight, finally comes out on top.

UFC Fight Night pick: Gastelum

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