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UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori betting odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Danny Howard

Danny Howard

October 18th, 2021

A crossroads clash between middleweight contenders Marvin Vettori and Paulo Costa headlines the Oct. 23 edition of UFC Fight Night. One man will be closer to another title shot by night’s end, and we have the betting odds and preview you need before the action starts.

Sat, October 23 2021, 10:00 PM

Costa, Paulo Henrique

Moneyline

+108

Vettori, Marvin

Moneyline

-132

Vettori must be wary of Costa’s power

In this battle of Israel Adesanya’s leftovers, Vettori possesses more tools at his disposal, being dangerous on his feet and deadly on the mat. Though he was outclassed by Adesanya at UFC 263, he looked unbeatable against all but the very best of the division ahead of the loss.

Vettori fights like a buzz saw and constantly comes forward with heavy activity, and is an absolute nightmare for fighters with poor takedown defense. He has never been stopped in his MMA career, and he’ll have to hope his conditioning and chin can withstand Costa’s bombs, should they land.

Vettori vs. Costa tale of the tape

Marvin Vettorivs.Paulo Costa
17-4-1
Record
13-1
28
Age
30
6'0"
Height
6'1"
74"
Reach
72"
4-1
Last 5 Fights
4-1
Crafty submission artist
Key Intangibles
Striking power

Costa is a great finisher

The explosive Costa has been inactive since his lopsided defeat to Adesanya back in September 2020. Though he’s a solid finisher, he looked completely out of his league against Adesanya in a performance that damaged his devastating aura.

Injury and financial disagreements have kept him out of the octagon, but he’ll still come into this critical fight looking to make a statement. Costa’s opponents seldom go the distance, and that has to do with his aggressive style and considerable striking power.

Vettori will outsmart and outlast Costa

The thinking here is that either Costa will spark Vettori out early, or Vettori will grind out a decision win. Considering Vettori’s chin and conditioning, it will take a lot of energy from Costa to punch through Vettori’s activity to land such a damaging shot. When Vettori does survive that early charge, he shouldn’t have too much trouble diffusing Costa.

The inactivity isn’t going to help the musclebound Costa either, especially as Vettori will utilize constant movement to test the limits of his conditioning. We’ve seen Costa struggle against opponents who aren’t ready and available for him to hit, and Vettori’s awkwardness might be a bit much for his first fight back.

Behind his steady volume and reliable footwork, Vettori is set to outclass Costa. As Vettori’s angles and strikes begin to fluster him, Costa may use whatever energy he has left trying to avoid a submission. Expect Vettori to turn in a cerebral performance en route to a decision win.

UFC Fight Night pick: Vettori

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