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UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez betting odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Danny Howard

Danny Howard

October 4th, 2021

A pair of top strawweights face off in a potential title eliminator when Marina Rodriguez clashes with Mackenzie Dern on the Oct. 9 edition of UFC Fight Night. We have the betting odds and preview you need before these feisty fighters step into the octagon.

Sat, October 9 2021, 11:00 PM

Dern, Mackenzie

Moneyline

-155

Rodriguez, Marina

Moneyline

+125

Rodriguez is a strong striker

Rodriguez might have thought she was on the cusp of a title shot, but the volatile Muay Thai striker instead finds herself in a tough situation with Dern. We last saw Rodriguez displaying the full array of her striking in a clinical beating of Michelle Waterson last May.

While Rodriguez is no grappler, she has a 67% takedown defense and can be an absolute terror when she lets her hands go. She lands 4.89 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy, but needs to resist the urge to fight in close quarters against a prodigious grappler.

Mackenzie Dern vs. Marina Rodriguez tale of the tape

Mackenzie Dernvs.Marina Rodriguez
11-1
Record
14-1-2
28
Age
34
5'6"
Height
5'4"
63"
Reach
65"
4-1
Last 5 Fights
3-1-1
Submission specialist
Key Intangibles
Active striker

Dern is a walking bear trap

Dern is one of the most accomplished Brazilian Jiu Jitsu practitioners on the planet. If there was any doubt, she has seven wins by way of submission, including a first round armbar win over Nina Nunes in April.

Of those seven submission wins, four have come in the first round. Paramount to Dern’s game is her aggressive submissions, which are so dangerous that opponents haven't dared to take her down in fear of falling right into her trap.

Rodriguez will avoid the mat and decision Dern

While Dern can win this fight at any point, she’s going up against a strong striker who can fend off her advances and make her pay a heavy price. Rodriguez shares a lot in common with Amanda Ribas, who easily beat Dern by simply avoiding the mat.

As evidenced by her own win over Ribas, Rodriguez can chop Dern up if the same one-note offense she had against Ribas doesn’t get the job done. While there will be tense moments where it seems like Dern could potentially take her down, Rodriguez will control the distance and counter effectively.

A few stuffed takedown attempts early on will lead to Rodriguez delivering sharp counters and pushing Dern further out of her comfort zone. Unable to beat her on the ground and unlikely to outstrike her, Dern will be out of options halfway through. By night’s end, Rodriguez will comfortably outpoint Dern for a decision win.

UFC Fight Night pick: Rodriguez

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