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UFC Fight Night: Gillespie vs. Riddell betting odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Danny Howard

March 15th, 2021

An intriguing lightweight clash between the returning Gregor Gillespie and streaking Brad Riddell will highlight the undercard for the March 20 edition of UFC Fight Night.

Let's dive in, break down the fight, and make a pick to get you a winner on fight night.

Sun, March 21 2021, 1:00 AM

Gillespie, Gregor

Moneyline

-240

Riddell, Brad

Moneyline

+175

Gillespie returns after shocking KO loss

When we last saw Gillespie in the octagon, he had his head kicked halfway to the moon by Kevin Lee. Now that Gillespie has presumably returned to his senses after a year, he’s up against another formidable striker.

Gillespie has gone 4-1 over his last five fights, with stoppages in each of his wins, by way of submission or ground and pound. He is a mat specialist, with excellent striking defense, and has absorbed an average of 2.14 significant strikes per minute. He is also a fantastic finisher.

Gillespie has only seen two fighters go the distance with him. Unlike most grapplers, he is heavy-handed and can land some devastating shots to set up his suffocating ground game.

Riddell looking to climb the ladder

Riddell is in the midst of a six-fight win streak and has raised his competition each time. More than half of his wins have been via stoppage, behind a steady and accurate offense.

Gregor Gillespie vs. Brad Riddell tale of the tape

Gregor Gillespie (13-1) Brad Riddell (9-1)
34
Age
29
5’7”
Height
5’7”
71”
Reach
71”
4-1
Last five fights
5-0
Grappling expert
Key intangibles
Striking accuracy

A win over Gillespie would be a massive surge for Riddell in the rankings, and while he could score a stoppage, it would be his first in four fights. Even more troubling is that his lone loss came via submission.

Gillespie is all wrong for Riddell

Gillespie averages 7.02 takedowns, with a staggering 47% accuracy, and he is extremely active on the ground when looking for a submission.

Riddell is at risk in this fight, because he hasn’t shown the same type of power in the UFC as he did in regional promotions.

This fight will come down to how willing Riddell is to try and strike oil. The longer he stands in front of Gillespie, the more likely he’ll get taken down. But Gillespie might not be willing to charge out the gate after the layoff.

Eventually, Gillespie’s superior skill set and ground game will wear out Riddell and force him to the canvas, where a ground-and-pound stoppage will be imminent.

Gillespie will get back in the win column with a stoppage against Riddell.

MMA free pick: Gillespie

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