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UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana odds, pick & prediction

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September 29th, 2020

Holly Holm is fighting to stay relevant, while Irene Aldana is waiting in the wings, ready to pounce on the former champion and stake her claim as an elite fighter.

This crossroads fight serves as the main event for the Oct. 3 edition of UFC Fight Night.

Let's check out the betting odds and make a pick for UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana.

Sun, October 4 2020, 3:55 AM

Holly Holm

Moneyline

-120

Total

O 4.5

Irene Aldana

Moneyline

+100

Total

U 4.5

Holm looks washed up

There is a sense that if Holm isn’t at the end of her rope, she is inching close to i. Though she managed to barely scrap by Raquel Pennington in her last fight, it was ugly, and Holm had to pull out all the stops to keep the pace slow.

She is getting the benefit of the doubt as a slight favorite as en ex-champ, but she ios 38 and coming off an uneven performance.

Holm fights at a methodical pace and opts to counter and use her footwork to maneuver away from exchanges. She is a tremendous striker, but hasn’t won inside the distance in three years. The counter punching can give lesser opponents pause, but she can’t expect to keep winning fights with backpedaling and constant clinches.

If that’s the plan, there’s no reason why bettors shouldn’t take Aldana with these odds. Holm can still light her up if she isn’t careful, but this version of Holm relies too much on waiting and neutralization.

Aldana is a capable striker, and Holm won’t get too physical or shoot for takedowns, which means Holm will have to fight Aldana off to create distance.

Who will win UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana?

Aldana will exploit Holm's limited ground game

Aldana can operate on the mat, whereas Holm just covers up and tries to get back on her feet. The only threat to Aldana is that she succumbs to traps set by Holm, designed to get her to fight slow, to lure her into a counter or leg kicks. Once Aldana gets inside, she can hurt Holm and force her into a war of attrition that will seal her fate.

Eventually, be it by a knockdown or a takedown, Aldana is going to exploit Holm’s lack of a ground game and put a beating on her. While it’s true that a faded champion never loses their pedigree, it’s hard to bet that Holm has enough left for this.

The call here is that Aldana will choke Holm out in the second round.

MMA free pick: Aldana

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