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UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Rodriguez betting odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Danny Howard

Danny Howard

August 25th, 2021

Kevin Lee is hoping a return trip to welterweight will cure the mid-career blues, but Daniel Rodriguez is ready for his own big moment. We have the betting odds and pick you need ahead of their UFC Fight Night clash on Saturday, Aug. 28.

Sun, August 29 2021, 3:15 AM

Lee, Kevin

Moneyline

-150

Rodriguez, Daniel

Moneyline

+120

Rodriguez comes in with big advantages

"D-Rod" is taking this bout with Lee on short notice, as Sean Brady suffered another injury just weeks beforehand. There is nothing pretty about Rodriguez’s game, but the rough-and-ready brawler looked strong while taking out Preston Parson’s last month.

Rodriguez’s size and power makes him an odd choice for Lee’s new opponent, but that only serves as an advantage. Though Rodriguez won’t confuse anyone for a technically sound operator, he lands an astonishing 8.07 significant strikes per minute with an 83% takedown defense.

Kevin Lee vs. Daniel Rodriguez tale of the tape

Kevin Leevs.Daniel Rodriguez
18-6
Record
15-2
28
Age
34
5'9"
Height
6'1"
77"
Reach
74"
2-3
Last 5 Fights
4-1
Experience
Key Intangibles
Striking volume

Lee might be too refined for Rodriguez

Unlike Rodriguez, Lee has been fighting at a high level for an extended period of time, making him the best opponent Rodriguez has seen thus far. Lee has been bouncing between lightweight and welterweight, and was defeated by current lightweight champion Charles Oliveira in May of last year.

Though he’s giving up size and strength to Rodriguez, Lee is a strong grappler who can mix it up when he has to. The benefit of facing a rudimentary striker may give him opportunities to work his ground game in.

Rodriguez’s aggression, size will be too much for Lee

Lee is in an awkward position whereby he’s too big for his optimal weight class, but too small for the one he’s fighting in. Not to mention that he’s picked up a lot of miles and is facing a late substitute that differs greatly from the one he was preparing for. Rodriguez is riding with some momentum here and can bulldoze his way through Lee.

Had this been a five round bout, Lee could test Rodriguez’s conditioning and play the long game. That isn’t the case here, and Lee is going to take a lot of punishment if he hopes to take Rodriguez down. His experience might get him out of the first round, but Rodriguez will catch him.

Rodriguez will show up late but come up big, leaving Lee folded and ready to be placed in a waste receptacle in the second round.

UFC Fight Night pick: Rodriguez

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