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UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira odds and preview

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November 5th, 2020

Thiago Santos (21-7-0) finally makes his return to the octagon on Saturday, Nov. 7 after nearly two years off from injury. Before he can resume his quest for a light heavyweight title, he’ll have to face off against the streaking Glover Teixeira (31-7-0) in the main event of UFC Fight Night at UFC APEX in Las Vegas.

BetAmerica has the betting odds and pick for this light heavyweight clash.

Sun, November 8 2020, 4:55 AM

Glover Teixeira

Moneyline

+200

Total

O 1.5

Thiago Santos

Moneyline

-250

Total

U 1.5

No soft touch for Santos

Credit goes to Santos for taking such a tough fight in his first trip into the octagon almost 16 months after a brutal injury. Santos is going to have a lot of questions about his mobility and if it further compromises his questionable endurance. Putting him up against a hard-chinned mat expert like Teixeira is a big ask for his first night back at work.

Teixeira literally punched Anthony Smith’s teeth out in his last fight, and is tearing a swath through the division to close in on a title shot. Oddsmakers favor Santos’ power, but it’s almost certain that Teixeira is going to be dictating the pace of this fight from the beginning. Santos has been more selective with his striking since moving up to light heavyweight, and it would be foolish for him to wantonly charge at a submission specialist from the get-go.

Iron chin and iron will

Both men can take a shot and show no retreat, meaning this could be an entertaining fight with some dramatic moments. Santos’ path for victory comes from fighting at a distance and remaining composed once Teixeira gets inside. His striking and takedown defense are top-notch, and he hasn’t tapped out in his entire career, but his Achilles heel has traditionally been his endurance.

Teixeira's has an easy target in Santos' surgically repaired leg, so expect a lot of leg kicks and takedown attempts to test Santos’ resolve. Coupled with his own unorthodox style of striking and unique footwork, he’ll lead Santos into a trap that’ll take him to the mat. Unless Santos uncorks him before the third, it’s difficult imagining Teixeira losing on the cards.

The submission specialist will persevere

Santos’ injury was no minor scuff. His mobility can be permanently compromised, and he isn’t engaging a one-dimensional striker that will happily sit and trade blows with him. Teixeira on the moneyline is a good pick at +185, but the pick here is a tantalizing +550 prop for him to win by decision

MMA pick: Teixeira by decision (+550)

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