2019 Clash at Daytona Betting Strategy

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D.S. Williamson

February 9th, 2019

Football, basketball, and baseball handicappers get used to thinking in terms of either/or outcomes. Either one team covers the spread, or the other team covers the spread. Either one team wins on the moneyline or the other team wins on the moneyline. When it comes to handicapping sports like golf or auto racing, though, either/or thinking doesn’t apply. Casting a wide net on potential outcomes is what's going to turn you in to a NASCAR player as we get ready to gauge the 2019 Clash at Daytona betting odds, which will kickstart the season.

The best way to handicap a NASCAR race is to think in terms of bankroll. How much do you wish to apply to the Advanced Auto Parts Clash on Sunday, Feb. 10? Then, break the drivers up into categories and decide how much of that bankroll you wish to assign to the driver you favor in each category.

If you know nothing about NASCAR, don’t worry. Below’s an analyzation of the 2019 Clash at Daytona betting favorites, drivers that figure to threat as outsiders, and underdog longshots.

The 2019 Clash At Daytona Betting Favorites

Brad Keselowski +650
Joey Logano +650
Kevin Harvick +750
Denny Hamlin +950
Chase Elliott +950
 Joey Logano won in 2017 and Brad Keselowski won last year. That’s why those 2 drivers are in the favorites category, which includes any driver offering less than quadruple-digit odds.

Harvick finished 9th, but he demands so much respect from NASCAR handicappers that he shows up as the second choice. Harvick last won the Clash in 2013. That gives him a chance.

But, Denny Hamlin has won the Clash twice since then, in 2014 and 2016. The Joe Gibbs racer isn’t nearly as highly regarded as Kyle Busch, yet he finished ahead of Kyle in the 2018 Clash. Hamlin gets the nod from the favorites to win on Feb. 10.

He should benefit from the new NASCAR rules packages as much as any favorite listed.

2019 Clash at Daytona Betting Pick: Denny Hamlin

Potential Threats To The Checkered Flag

Clint Bowyer +1000
Aric Almirola +1000
Kyle Busch +1000
Ryan Blaney +1000
Kurt Busch +1600
Daniel Suarez +1800
Martin Truex Jr. +1800
Bowyer, Almirola, Busch, and Blaney all offer +1000 odds in 2019 Clash at Daytona betting. That’s a sign NASCAR handicappers haven’t yet decided who’s got the best shot. But, of those drivers only Kyle has won the Clash since 2010. The younger Busch took the checkered flag back in 2012.

Kyle has a shot, but brother Kurt, who won the Clash back in 2011, offers much better odds. Kurt Busch finished third in the 2018 Clash. He also finished tenth in the 2017 race, and seventh in the 2016 version. He’s definitely worth considering to win, but he’s not the pick in this category.

The pick is Daniel Suarez at +1800. Suarez should have a break out NASCAR Season. The Monterrey, Mexico-born driver switches teams from Joe Gibbs Racing to Stewart-Haas. The new rules package, designed to put more emphasis on drivers and less on engineering, gives no fear guys like Suarez an edge.

The 2016 Xfinity Series champ has a big shot to show everyone exactly what he can do sitting in a Ford. Suarez offers great value at +1800.

2019 Clash at Daytona Betting Pick: Daniel Suarez

The Long Dogs That Have Bite at Daytona

Alex Bowman +2000
Erik Jones +2000
Jimmie Johnson +2200
Austin Dillon +2200
Kyle Larson +2200
Jamie McMurray +2500
Ryan Newman +2500
Paul Menard +3000
You can throw a dart, right? Although everyone listed in the underdog category has a chance to win the Advanced Auto Parts Clash on Sunday, there are some clues that give 3 drivers an edge. The same reason to consider Suarez in the drivers that figure category, gives Erik Jones, the legend Jimmie Johnson, and Austin Dillon a shot.

Hendrick Motorsports and Jimmie are thoroughly embarrassed that he didn’t make it to Homestead in the Top 4 in last year’s NASCAR Playoffs. New crew chief Kevin Meendering should take advantage of the new rules while Johnson will no doubt be more aggressive than he was last season.

Erik Jones has as much talent as any driver at NASCR. He’s ultra-aggressive anyhow and doesn’t have to worry about Daniel Saurez looking over his shoulder now that Suarez has left Joe Gibbs for Stewart-Haas.

Austin Dillon finished fifth in last year’s Clash. A week later, the Richard Childress driver took the checkered flag at the Daytona 500. Dillon likes Daytona International Speedway, and could provide big profit at +2200.

Of the three, Jones is my pick. He raced great last year, gets a better setup with Suarez off the team, and should benefit greatly from the emphasis change to drivers instead of engineers.

2019 Clash at Daytona Betting Pick: Erik Jones