Kyle Busch favored to win Bluegreen Vacations 500

Profile Picture: Brandon Coppinger

November 7th, 2019

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads to Phoenix for the Bluegreen Vacations 500 at ISM Raceway on Sunday, November 10. This crucial elimination race will set up the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick are locked into the final four, but this weekend two more drivers will clinch their spot in the finale.

Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott are competing for those final two spots. Busch and Logano currently hold the spots based on points, but all it takes is a victory at ISM Raceway to shake things up. Look for teams to pull out every trick in the book.

Odds to win the Bluegreen Vacations 500

DriverBluegreen Vacations 500 Odds
Kyle Busch
Kevin Harvick
Denny Hamlin
Martin Truex Jr.
Chase Elliott

Play to win the race: Kyle Busch

Busch is a much-deserving favorite this weekend. In 2018 ISM Raceway moved the start/finish line to the backstretch, which completely flipped the track. Busch has won every race he’s ran on the track with that setup, and both starts came with him having a starting spot of sixth or better. If he starts the race with a top-five starting spot, you might see him completely dominate.
Since 2017 Busch has lead 536 laps in five races at the track. In those five races Busch hasn’t finished worse than seventh. He’s not guaranteed a spot in the finale just yet, but a strong run Sunday would do the trick. His odds of +300 don't leave much meat on the bone, but Busch should dominate Sunday. In the last five races at ISM, Busch has an average finish of 2.80. It doesn’t get much better than that.

Play to win the championship: Chase Elliott

Chase Elliott is currently 78 points below the cut line. That means Elliott has to win the race at ISM to advance to the finale at Homestead-Miami. If Elliott is able to steal the race at ISM, you would then hold a 30-1 ticket for next weekend’s race. No way will Elliott be that high next weekend. The value is way too good to pass up.

Can Elliott actually win at ISM? He holds an average finish of 10.80 in the last five races at the track, has two top-five finishes in those races and also led 156 laps. Why not take a shot at +3000 with a driver who has won three times this year? Also, in the last three races at ISM, Elliott has started third or better. He should be able to qualify well and start at the front of the pack. Elliott is clutch, and this is worth the risk.

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