NASCAR All-Star Race odds and value picks

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June 11th, 2021

NASCAR’s brightest stars will be shining in the Lone Star State this Sunday night, as the 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race will take place at Texas Motor Speedway (8 p.m. ET, FS1). The unique 100-lap format is likely to level the playing field significantly, making for an interesting betting event.

“As far as the inversion and all the different starting positions, I think I’ll just leave that up to [crew chief] Justin [Alexander] and the guys to help me out with that,” Austin Dillion told’s Bob Pockrass. “I know we’re starting fifth, and we’ll just take it from there. I think it’s a 100-lap race and a couple different cautions and resets throughout. So I guess the most average finishes play into it and speed. We’ll just make it work.”

As a result, taking Kyle Larson as the +350 favorite seems unwise despite his starting from the pole via random draw. Let’s go looking for value as we make our top three upset selections for the 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race.

NASCAR All-Star Race

Mon, June 14 2021, 12:00 AM

Larson, Kyle


Elliott, Chase


Busch, Kyle


Truex Jr, Martin


Hamlin, Denny


Logano, Joey


Blaney, Ryan


Byron, William


Harvick, Kevin


Bowman, Alex


Kyle Busch (+800)

Kyle Busch’s strong track record at Texas Motor Speedway makes him a live longshot on Sunday night.

“The Candy Man” is tops among active drivers in wins (four), Top 5s (14), and laps led (1,049) over this course. He won the October race at Texas last season while leading 90 laps in the process.

Busch has four Top 5s in his last six races, so he’s in good form at the moment. He’ll start alongside Larson on the front row in the All-Star Race.

Joey Logano (+1100)

Joey Logano has just one win at Texas, but he’s got a good shot at taking the checkered flag in Sunday’s 100-lap shootout.

Logano is fourth among active drivers in average finishing position over this course at 13.4 (minimum 10 starts), and fifth in laps led (465). Nine of his last 10 trips to Texas have resulted in Top 10s.

The No. 22 Ford driver enters the All-Star Race in good form, having placed in the Top 5 in three of his last four races. He’ll roll off the grid in seventh place.

Christopher Bell (+2500)

Those looking to connect with a big longshot on Sunday could do worse than Christopher Bell.

The No. 20 Toyota driver caught a break when he was awarded third place by random draw for the start of the All-Star Race. Bell has missed the Top 10 in seven straight races, but he was an outstanding third in last October’s race at Texas when he was still driving for the now-defunct Leavine Family Racing. He could build on that performance in a Joe Gibbs Racing car now.