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NASCAR Ally 400 odds and value picks

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

June 18th, 2021

The NASCAR Cup Series drivers are in for a unique challenge this Father’s Day, as they head to Nashville Superspeedway for the Ally 400 (3:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN). The 1 1/3-mile concrete oval has never hosted a Cup Series race, nor has it hosted a NASCAR event of any kind since 2011.

After (unofficially) posting his third straight win in the All-Star Race last Sunday, Kyle Larson has been stamped as the heavy +275 favorite at Nashville. These odds seem far too short considering Larson has never raced over this course, so let’s go looking for value with our selections for the Ally 400.

Ally 400

Sun, June 20 2021, 7:30 PM

Larson, Kyle

+275

Truex Jr, Martin

+650

Elliott, Chase

+700

Hamlin, Denny

+850

Busch, Kyle

+900

Byron, William

+1200

Keselowski, Brad

+1200

Harvick, Kevin

+1300

Logano, Joey

+1300

Bowman, Alex

+1400

Martin Truex Jr. (+650)

Nashville is now the longest concrete oval on the NASCAR circuit. The only other concrete surfaces on the Cup Series schedule are Bristol, Martinsville, and Dover, with the latter serving as the best possible comparison as it is a one-mile track, compared to the other half-mile venues. Indeed, the right-side tires in use for the Ally 400 are based on the Dover configuration. This is good news for Martin Truex Jr. backers this Sunday.

Truex finished no worse than second in four of his last five races at Dover, and he’s won three of his last four races at Martinsville. The apparent “king of the concrete” looks like a wise wager at this price, though you may want to wait until Sunday morning qualifying is completed to place your bet.

Chase Elliott (+700)

The defending Cup Series Champion – Chase Elliott – appears to be offering good value in the Ally 400.

Elliott has a win at both Dover (October 2018) and Martinsville (November 2020), and has the best average finish of any active driver at Bristol (12.1, minimum 10 starts). He’s finished no worse than third in four straight points-paying events.

Kyle Busch (+900)

It’s going a long way back, but Kyle Busch has some good prior form at Nashville Superspeedway.

Busch took the 2009 Xfinity race at Nashville, and the Truck Series races in both 2010 and 2011. “Rowdy” has 13 combined wins at NASCAR’s other three concrete ovals, and is no worse than second in laps led at each circuit among active drivers.

He enters the Ally 400 on a streak of three straight Top 10s, excluding the All-Star Race.

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