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NASCAR Bank of America Roval 400 odds and upset picks

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

October 9th, 2020

The NASCAR Cup Series playoff field will be whittled down from 12 drivers to eight after Sunday’s Bank of America Roval 400, being held at Charlotte Motor Speedway’s tricky road course (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC).

Chase Elliott has won the last three road races that NASCAR has held, including last year’s renewal of the Roval event. Not surprisingly, he’s been set as the +280 betting favorite.

Nascar Cup Series: Bank of America ROVAL 400 2020 - Winner

Sun, October 11 2020, 6:30 PM

Chase Elliott

+280

Martin Truex Jr.

+500

Denny Hamlin

+700

Kevin Harvick

+750

Brad Keselowski

+1000

Kyle Busch

+1200

Joey Logano

+1300

Clint Bowyer

+1400

Ryan Blaney

+1400

Alex Bowman

+1500

As usual, we’ll go looking elsewhere and try to get some value on an upset winner. Here are our top three choices.

Martin Truex Jr. (+500)

Martin Truex Jr. should have won the first ever NASCAR race on this course back in 2018, but Jimmie Johnson took him out on the final turn. He checked in 14th that day, and seventh in last year’s visit here. But Truex’s prowess on road courses is such that he’s been made the second-choice in the wagering here, but at a fair price.

Truex’s three victories and 191 laps led in his last nine road races are second only to Elliott (four and 213, respectively). He’ll roll off the grid in seventh place on Sunday.

Clint Bowyer (+1400)

Clint Bowyer is sitting in 11th place heading into this elimination race, 38 points behind the eighth and final spot currently being held by Joey Logano. He could really use a victory if he wants to move on to the Round of 8 in what we now know is his final season behind the wheel.

Bowyer has not won at a road course since 2012 (Sonoma, 0-for-18 since), but he has the best average finish (7.22) of any driver on these circuits over the last nine races. That includes his third and fourth-place results at the Roval in 2018 and 2019, respectively. Bowyer begins his day in 11th.

Alex Bowman (+1500)

Alex Bowman currently sits just one point above Logano at the cutline for the Round of 8. But a victory would assure Bowman of a next-round berth. There’s a case to be made that he’ll do just that on Sunday.

Bowman was fourth at the Roval in 2018 before checking in second behind teammate Elliott in last year’s visit to this course. His average finishing position of 9.86 at road courses is sixth among active drivers (minimum seven starts). Bowman will start in fifth place.

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