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NASCAR Drydene 400 odds and value picks

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

May 14th, 2021

Dover International Speedway – better known as the “Monster Mile” – is the site for Sunday’s Drydene 400 (2:00 p.m. ET, FS1).

Martin Truex Jr. – the only driver to win multiple races this season – goes for his fourth score of the year as the +350 favorite. He won the pole award for the Drydene 400 on the strength of his dominant victory in the Goodyear 400 at Darlington last Sunday.

Truex has fared well at Dover over his career, but he doesn’t appear to be the best bet in the field. Let’s go looking for value as we make our selections for the Drydene 400.

Drydene 400

Sun, May 16 2021, 6:00 PM

Truex Jr, Martin

+350

Larson, Kyle

+450

Hamlin, Denny

+600

Harvick, Kevin

+750

Busch, Kyle

+800

Elliott, Chase

+800

Keselowski, Brad

+1300

Byron, William

+1600

Logano, Joey

+1600

Bowman, Alex

+1800

Kevin Harvick (+750)

Kevin Harvick has been one of the Cup Series’ better drivers at Dover of late, so he has to be considered for the win at a nice price.

Since stage racing began at Dover in 2017, Harvick has placed in all but one of the 16 stages. He’s swept Stages 1 and 2 on three occasions, cruising to victory twice. No active driver has led more laps at Dover than Harvick, with 1,631.

Harvick is still in search of his first win in 2021 despite posting a season high nine scores in 2020, but he’s been in good form, as he’s averaged a fourth-place finish over his last three races.

The No. 4 Ford will begin the Drydene 400 in fifth place.

Chase Elliott (+800)

Chase Elliott has suffered some bad luck at Dover lately, but if he gets a clean trip, he can take this race at fair odds.

Elliott has failed to finish in two of his last three trips to the “Monster Mile” due to an engine failure and an accident, respectively. But if one takes those races out of consideration, Elliott has an average finish of 4.5 over an eight-race span. That includes his victory here in October of 2018.

The No. 9 driver has four Top 10s in his last six races overall. He’ll roll off the grid in eighth place on Sunday.

Alex Bowman (+1800)

Alex Bowman has failed to tally a Top 10 in three races since his surprise victory at Richmond, but he’s made a habit out of jumping out of nowhere for victories over his relatively-brief career.

A Dover triumph would not be a total shock for Bowman, as he’s recorded a Top 5 in three of his last four visits to the Delaware oval.

The No. 48 Chevrolet will start in 16th.

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