NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 betting odds and value picks

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

August 20th, 2021

For the first time in five weeks, the NASCAR Cup Series drivers will compete on a four-turn, left-handed oval in Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway (3:00 p.m. ET, NBCSN).

Kyle Larson is the clear-cut betting favorite for this race at +275, which makes sense given the outstanding initial season he’s having at Hendrick Motorsports. He also has a strong track record at two-mile circuits from his days at Chip Ganassi Racing; at one point (2016-2017), Larson won four straight races at two-mile tracks, three of which came at Michigan.

But we’re not going to concede this race to the favorite. Let’s go looking for value with our top three picks for the FireKeepers Casino 400.

FireKeepers Casino 400

Sun, August 22 2021, 7:00 PM

Larson, Kyle


Busch, Kyle


Elliott, Chase


Truex Jr, Martin


Harvick, Kevin


Hamlin, Denny


Byron, William


Keselowski, Brad


Logano, Joey


Blaney, Ryan


Kyle Busch (+800)

Kyle Busch is the distant second-choice in the FireKeepers Casino 400, but a logical one worth consideration.

Busch finished in the Top 3 in four straight races prior to wrecking and finishing 37th at New Hampshire, the most recent round course NASCAR competed at. That included a victory in the latter half of the weekend double at Pocono Speedway.

Though “The Candy Man” has just one career victory at Michigan (earned back in 2011), he’s been knocking on the door in recent races there, finishing no worse than sixth in six straight tries. Busch will begin in seventh place by virtue of NASCAR’s performance based metric used to set this week’s field.

Joey Logano (+1400)

Logano appeared to turn a corner when he finished fourth at New Hampshire just before NASCAR’s Olympics-induced vacation. But back-to-back finishes outside the Top 20 at Watkins Glen and the Indianapolis Road Course only added to his losing streak dating back to the Bristol Dirt Race on March 29.

Though he’ll begin in 19th on Sunday, Logano appears to have a puncher’s chance at capturing the checkered flag in the FireKeepers Casino 400 at a big price.

Ford has taken six straight races at Michigan, including Logano’s victory over this course in 2019. He was fifth and eighth, respectively, in the August doubleheader held here in 2020. Only Kevin Harvick has more laps led at Michigan than Logano (699 to 590) among active drivers.

Ryan Blaney (+1500)

Logano’s Penske teammate Ryan Blaney has been in much better form of late, placing in the Top 5 in three of his last four races. That includes his runner-up result at Indy last week. He should not be ignored at Michigan at these odds.

Blaney has hit the Top 10 in four of his last six starts at Michigan, and one of his two failures to do so was due to a wreck. He’s led 50 laps in that span and placed in 10 of a possible 12 stages.

The No. 12 Ford will begin in third place.