NASCAR Food City 500 Preview

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D.S. Williamson

April 4th, 2019

Who to Bet at Bristol Motor Speedway

NASCAR heads to Bristol Motor Speedway in Tennessee for this Sunday’s Food City 500. Kyle Busch is a major -150 favorite to finish in front of Brad Keselowski in the head-to-head matchups.

Check out BetAmerica odds, analysis on the top head-to-head matchups, and other thoughts on the Food City 500 on April 7!

Top Head-to-Head Matchups

Kyle Busch -150 vs. Brad Keselowski +125

Busch won the 2018 Food City 500, while Keselowski finished 23rd. Last week at Texas Motor Speedway, Kyle finished 10th, and Brad crashed out of the race early. Outside of the crash last Sunday, Kesel’s been in excellent form, though, including winning at Martinsville and finishing third at California. But his Bristol form hasn’t been all that. He’s not even in the Top 15 at Bristol in the last four races. Hate taking chalk, but it's a must here.

Pick: Kyle Busch

Brad Keselowski -110 vs. Joey Logano -110

Logano’s average finish at Bristol in the last four is 7.75. He’s got three top-10 finishes in the last 4, giving him a major edge over Keselowski in this head-to-head matchup. Brad’s got one top-20 finish in the last four at Bristol Motor Speedway, and that’s it. Logano wins this.

Pick: Joey Logano

Joey Logano -120 vs. Kyle Larson +100

Larson’s last-four form is fantastic, with four top-10 finishes. Not only that, he’s been winning Xfinity Races with regularity. Although his Monster Energy Cup form isn’t nearly as good, it’s only a matter of time before the Xfinity form translates. That makes him the pick over Joey in this head-to-head.

Pick: Kyle Larson

Kyle Larson -140 vs. Kevin Harvick +120

Kevin Harvick has yet to win a race this NASCAR season, but he most definitely will eventually. He’s also raced well at Bristol in the last four, and his form is good enough to consider backing to win the event outright. Harvick doesn’t have a big advantage over Larson. He does offer better odds, though, which makes him the pick.

Pick: Kevin Harvick 

Drivers That Figure

Martin Truex Jr. +1200
Ryan Blaney +1200
Chase Elliott +1400
Denny Hamlin +1400
Jimmie Johnson +1800
Kurt Busch +1800
Clint Bowyer +1800
Aric Almirola +1800
Erik Jones +2000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +2200

Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin might be overlays at the odds they’re offering. But, neither offers better odds than Aric Almirola. Almirola doesn’t have overall great Bristol form in the last four races. He did finish sixth at the 2018 Food City 500, though.

Not only that, Aric has been steady this year. He’s finished in the top 10 in every race, save for a 32nd place at the Daytona 500. He even won the pole at Atlanta before finishing eighth. Because he’s in great form, and offers excellent odds, Almirola’s the top play if you’re looking to put money on a driver that figures.

Pick: Aric Almirola

Underdogs That Can Win

Alex Bowman +5000
Daniel Suarez +6000
Paul Menard +10000
William Byron +10000
Austin Dillon +10000
Ryan Newman +10000

Of the underdogs, one driver stands out with a great shot at winning on Sunday. Daniel Suarez and new team Stewart-Haas Racing might finally be on the same page. At California, Suarez finished 13th. A week later, he finished 10th, then last week he finished third.

Sometimes, it takes a few races for a new team and driver to become copacetic. If Suarez and Stewart-Haas get on the same page, he could take the checkered flag at massive +6000 odds.

Pick: Daniel Suarez

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