NASCAR Goodyear 400 odds and value picks

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

May 7th, 2021

Sunday’s Goodyear 400 (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1) from Darlington Raceway promises to be one of the more fun events of the NASCAR season. Most of the cars in the field will display “throwback” paint schemes, honoring the legends who shaped the sport. The only way the race could be more enjoyable is if you place a wager on the winning driver!

Kyle Larson is the betting favorite at +400, but that’s hardly an appetizing price on a driver that has never won at Darlington (0-for-6). Let’s go looking for some value as we make our selections for the Goodyear 400.

Goodyear 400

Sun, May 9 2021, 7:30 PM

Larson, Kyle


Hamlin, Denny


Harvick, Kevin


Busch, Kyle


Truex Jr, Martin


Keselowski, Brad


Elliott, Chase


Logano, Joey


Byron, William


Blaney, Ryan


Denny Hamlin (+600)

Denny Hamlin is about as “due” for a win as any driver in the NASCAR Cup Series at present. He won seven times in 2020 but has shockingly failed to find victory lane through 11 races this season. However, evidence suggests he’s a good bet to break out of this slump on Sunday.

Hamlin has amassed eight Top 5s in 2021, three more than second-place Brad Keselowski. His 744 laps led are by far the best in the sport, with Larson second at 511.

The No. 11 Toyota driver has two wins at Darlington in NASCAR’s last six trips there, along with two additional Top 10s. Hamlin has placed in all but one stage at “The Lady in Black” since 2017 while leading 166 laps.

He starts in seventh by virtue of NASCAR’s performance-based metric, so he should be in contention from the start.

Kevin Harvick (+700)

The other half of NASCAR’s dominant duo of 2020, Kevin Harvick is also 0-for-11 after winning a season-high nine races last year. But it’s not as though he’s running poorly in 2021 – and Darlington is one of his better tracks – so don’t be surprised if Harvick takes the checkered flag in the Goodyear 400.

Harvick raised his average finishing position on the season to 9.5 with a runner-up effort at Kansas last week, good for second behind only Hamlin (7.5). His average finishing position at Darlington over his last 10 races is a staggering 3.5. He’s won three times in that span – with two coming in 2020 – while leading 719 laps.

The No. 4 Ford will begin in second place, alongside the pole-sitting Keselowski.

Tyler Reddick (+4000)

Longshot players could do far worse than Tyler Reddick on Sunday.

The No. 8 Chevrolet pilot has put together an average finishing position of 9.8 over his last five races, accumulating four Top 10s in the process. He has a respectable average finish of 14.33 in three Cup Series starts at “The Track Too Tough to Tame” despite an average starting position of 22.33.

Reddick will roll off the grid in a much more manageable 10th place, alongside Richard Childress Racing stablemate Austin Dillon.