NASCAR Instacart 500 betting odds, preview, and value picks

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

March 12th, 2021

The NASCAR Cup Series season rolls on this Sunday (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX) with the Instacart 500 from Phoenix Raceway. Chase Elliott, who clinched his first career championship with a victory over this course last November, is the tepid +550 betting choice.

But is Elliott the best bet on the board? We went searching for some alternatives and came up with these three drivers with the best shot at posting yet another upset in this wild 2021 campaign.

Instacart 500

Sun, March 14 2021, 7:30 PM

Elliott, Chase


Hamlin, Denny


Harvick, Kevin


Keselowski, Brad


Busch, Kyle


Logano, Joey


Larson, Kyle


Truex Jr, Martin


Blaney, Ryan


Byron, William


Kevin Harvick (+650)

Few drivers in NASCAR history have been more dominant at a given oval than Kevin Harvick has been at Phoenix Raceway.

Harvick owns nine career wins at Phoenix, six more than active runner-up Kyle Busch. He also dwarfs the competition in laps led, with 1,662 all-time. Busch is second among active drivers with 1,190.

The No. 4 Ford driver has not been quite as overbearing a presence at Phoenix of late as he was from 2013 to 2016, when he won five out of six events here and finished second in the other. But Harvick has managed a Top 10 finish in 15 straight races on this course, suggesting he’s impossible to leave out.

Harvick will start in 18th by virtue of NASCAR’s performance-based metric.

Kyle Busch (+800)

It’s hard to find a better alternative for Harvick at Phoenix than Busch.

“The Candy Man” has recently enjoyed domination at the Avondale, AZ circuit, finishing no worse than third in six of his last eight races here. That includes consecutive victories in November of 2018 and March of 2019. Busch has led 605 laps in this span and posted three stage victories.

“Rowdy” has yet to win a race in 2021 or even lead a lap, but he appears to be building momentum. He was 10th at Homestead-Miami two weeks ago and third at Las Vegas when last seen. Busch begins his afternoon in seventh.

Kyle Larson (+850)

Kyle Larson tasted victory in the NASCAR Cup Series for the first time in over a year at Las Vegas last Sunday. He might just make it back-to-back victories for Hendrick Motorsports in the No. 5 Chevrolet at Phoenix this Sunday.

Larson has an average finishing position of 5.71 over this course in his last seven races, not including a last-place result due to a blown engine in November of 2017. He led a respectable 71 laps in that stretch.

Larson will be lined up beside pole-sitter Brad Keselowski when the green flag drops on Sunday.