NASCAR: Playing against a vulnerable favorite at Kentucky

Profile Picture: Brandon Coppinger

July 12th, 2019

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads to Kentucky on Saturday for the Quaker State 400. After Justin Haley shocked the NASCAR world with an upset win in Daytona, order will be restored in Kentucky, with a familiar face taking the checkered flag.

Martin Truex Jr. (+600) will attempt to go for his third win in a row at Kentucky. Along with the back-to-back wins, he led 326 laps in those two races. But there are two other drivers who have also been quite successful in Kentucky. Kyle Busch (+350) has two wins in eight starts and Brad Keselowski (+600) has three victories in eight starts at Kentucky.

The term "horse for the course" applies here for all three of those drivers. You can't get caught up playing other drivers this week and chasing big odds like last week. But Martin Truex Jr. is not the way to go, either, as I see him as a vulnerable co-second favorite.

In the last six Cup Series races, no driver has been better than Busch, who has an average finish of 7.83, a win and four top-five finishes. Busch has also finished in the top five in six of his eight starts at Kentucky.

Keselowski should be played as well. The price tag you're getting for a driver with his success at the track is a bargain. In eight starts at the track, Keselowski has three wins, four top-five finishes and has led 521 laps. Who is the only driver to lead more? Busch at 549 laps. Penske has been solid this year and there is no reason Keselowski can't find his way into victory lane this weekend.

NASCAR free plays: Kyle Busch (+350) and Brad Keselowski (+600)