NASCAR South Point 400 betting odds and value picks

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

September 24th, 2021

The NASCAR playoffs Round of 12 begins on Sunday night at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in the South Point 400 (7:00 p.m. ET, NBCSN).

The current +225 favorite to hoist the Bill France Cup at season’s end – Kyle Larson – finds himself as the +300 public choice to win this heat and secure an automatic berth into the Round of 8. But there appear to be some wiser wagering options on the board. Here are our top three upset selections for the South Point 400.

South Point 400

Sun, September 26 2021, 11:00 PM

Larson, Kyle


Busch, Kyle


Hamlin, Denny


Elliott, Chase


Truex Jr, Martin


Harvick, Kevin


Byron, William


Logano, Joey


Keselowski, Brad


Blaney, Ryan


Denny Hamlin (+750)

Denny Hamlin looks like a good bet to pick up his first career victory at Las Vegas on Sunday night.

Hamlin finished third and fourth, respectively, in his last two starts over this course, leading 168 laps in the process and placing in all four stages (one stage victory). He has three Top 5s and another Top 10 over his last five races overall, including his triumph at Darlington on Sept. 5. Hamlin has led 425 laps in that stretch.

The No. 11 Toyota driver will begin his evening in sixth place by virtue of NASCAR using their performance-based metric to set the field.

Martin Truex Jr. (+900)

Martin Truex Jr. has been a menacing presence at the “Sin City” oval since 2017, and is tough to leave out of the win discussion in the South Point 400.

Truex has remarkably placed in all 16 stages since stage racing began in Las Vegas in 2017, winning four of them. He’s visited victory lane twice in that span, recorded five additional Top 10s, and led 291 laps on this circuit in that eight-race sample.

The No. 19 Toyota driver hasn’t missed the Top 10 since the playoffs began (average finish of 4.00 in those three heats), and will roll off the grid in fourth place.

Ryan Blaney (+1500)

Those looking for a live longshot in the South Point 400 should land on Ryan Blaney.

The No. 12 Ford driver has been remarkably consistent at Las Vegas in his Cup Series career, posting an average finish of 9.20. That’s second only to Penske Racing teammate Joey Logano (8.44) among active drivers. Blaney has also placed in each of the last seven stages held at this circuit.

“YRB” has been one of the hottest drivers over the last six NASCAR events, posting an average finish of 6.67. He’ll start this race alongside the pole-sitting Larson.