NASCAR South Point 400 odds, preview and upset picks

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

September 25th, 2020

The NASCAR Cup Series drivers will race under the lights at Las Vegas Motor Speedway this Sunday night in the South Point 400 (7:00 p.m., NBCSN). This event marks the first of three races in the postseason’s Round of 12.

Kevin Harvick won two of the three races held during the Round of 16, so he’s unsurprisingly been set as a +350 favorite to visit Victory Lane once more. However, there is a trio of drivers that could stand in his way in Las Vegas, all offering better odds.

Nascar Cup Series - South Point 400 2020 - Winner

Sun, September 27 2020, 11:15 PM

Kevin Harvick


Martin Truex Jr.


Kyle Busch


Denny Hamlin


Brad Keselowski


Joey Logano


Chase Elliott


Ryan Blaney


Aric Almirola


Kurt Busch


Here are our upset selections for the South Point 400.

Martin Truex Jr. (+500)

Martin Truex Jr. crossed the finish line in 20th when the Cup Series made its way to Las Vegas during the second week of the season (Feb. 23). But that result was not indicative of how well Truex was driving in that race. It also belies how good he’s been at this track since 2017.

Truex finished second in Stage 1 and third in Stage 2 before encountering late trouble on pit road (loose lug nuts) here in February. His 20th-place finish snapped a streak of five Top 10s for Truex at Las Vegas, which included two victories. The No. 19 Toyota driver led 284 laps in that span.

Truex has nine Top 5s in his last 11 races overall, and rolls off the grid in 11th.

Joey Logano (+700)

Joey Logano missed the Top 10 at Bristol last week, only the second time he’s done that in his last 10 overall efforts. But Las Vegas is one of his favorite tracks, so it would not be surprising to see the No. 22 Ford driver rebound in the South Point 400.

Logano has won two of the last three races held at Las Vegas. Dating back to 2014 (nine races), Logano has led 486 laps on this oval. His average finishing position of eighth over this course is tops among all active drivers.

Logano begins his evening in fifth place.

Chase Elliott (+800)

Lady Luck has not been kind to Chase Elliott at Las Vegas, but he seems due for a reversal of fortune.

Elliott was leading during the final stage of the February race at this course before blowing a tire and catching the wall. It was the fourth time in seven career Cup Series races on this circuit that Elliott was involved in a wreck. But in the three races Elliott stayed out of trouble at Las Vegas, he’s finished third, fourth, and ninth.

The No. 9 Chevy driver has four Top 10s in his last six races overall. He’ll start in third place.