NASCAR Xfinity 500 betting odds and value picks

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

October 29th, 2021

The penultimate race of the NASCAR Playoffs – the Xfinity 500 – is set for Sunday afternoon at Martinsville Speedway (2:00 p.m. ET, NBC).

Martin Truex Jr. is the +400 favorite to halt Cup Series Championship favorite Kyle Larson’s win streak at three races, which is not that surprising considering the No. 19 Toyota driver has won three of the last four races held at “The Paperclip.” Truex appears solid but not unbeatable, so let’s go looking for value as we make our top selections for the Xfinity 500.

Xfinity 500

Sun, October 31 2021, 6:00 PM

Truex Jr, Martin


Hamlin, Denny


Larson, Kyle


Elliott, Chase


Blaney, Ryan


Busch, Kyle


Keselowski, Brad


Logano, Joey


Byron, William


Harvick, Kevin


Denny Hamlin (+600)

In addition to Truex, Joe Gibbs Racing has a good shot at taking the checkered flag at Martinsville this Sunday with Denny Hamlin.

Despite having not won at this oval since 2015, Hamlin is the active leader in victories at Martinsville with five. He’s also led the most laps here, outpacing Kyle Busch 1,884 to 1,429.

Hamlin already has two triumphs during the NASCAR Playoffs, and an average finishing position of 5.13 in that eight-race span. He’ll begin his afternoon in third place, by virtue of NASCAR using their performance-based metric to set the field this week.

Chase Elliott (+650)

After running second once more to Hendrick Motorsports teammate Kyle Larson at Kansas last week, Chase Elliott could turn the tables in the Xfinity 500.

Elliott was plagued by some bad luck at the beginning of his Cup Series career at Martinsville, but he’s since turned things around by placing in the Top 5 in four of his last five starts here. That includes his victory at “The Paperclip” last fall that locked him into the Championship 4. Of course, he would go on to win at Phoenix in 2020 and clinch his first ever NASCAR Championship.

Perhaps we will see history repeat itself on Sunday, as Elliott rolls off the grid in second place.

Christopher Bell (+2800)

Though he’s been eliminated from the playoffs, Christopher Bell could find Victory Lane on Sunday at a nice price.

Bell has an average finish of sixth place over his last four races, and was a solid seventh at Martinsville in his Joe Gibbs Racing debut here last spring. He even led nine laps that day.

The No. 20 Toyota driver is worth a longshot look in the Xfinity 500, as he takes the initial green flag from 12th position.