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Pennzoil 400 betting odds, preview, and value picks

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

March 5th, 2021

After spending the first three weeks of the season in Florida, the NASCAR Cup Series drivers will head to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX).

Kevin Harvick is a tepid +600 favorite, and it’s easy to see why. No one has a better average finishing position (7.90) than Harvick at 1 1/2-mile ovals since 2018. The No. 4 Ford driver also paces NASCAR in wins (eight) and laps led (2,195) in that span.

However, considering the prices that have come in through the first three races of the season (Michael McDowell, Christopher Bell and William Byron all cashed at above +2000), it might be best to give a long look to some other drivers. Here are our top three selections for the Pennzoil 400.

Pennzoil 400

Sun, March 7 2021, 8:30 PM

Truex Jr, Martin

+600

Harvick, Kevin

+600

Keselowski, Brad

+800

Logano, Joey

+800

Elliott, Chase

+900

Hamlin, Denny

+900

Larson, Kyle

+1000

Blaney, Ryan

+1300

Busch, Kyle

+1300

Byron, William

+1800

Joey Logano (+800)

When Joey Logano finished 14th in the September race at Las Vegas, it snapped a streak of nine Top 10 finishes for him at this oval. He’s a good bet to bounce back on Sunday.

Logano has won two of the last four Cup Series races held at Las Vegas, leading 246 laps in that span. He also scored two stage victories in this stretch. The No. 22 Ford driver has a knack for 1 1/2-mile courses, as he’s fourth in both average finishing position (9.85) and laps led (883) dating back to 2018.

Though the results haven’t really been there for Logano in 2021 – he sandwiched a runner-up effort at the Daytona Road Course with two finishes outside the Top 10 – he’s led at least 10 laps in each of the year’s first three races.

Logano rolls off the grid in 15th by virtue of NASCAR’s formula-based metric, but don’t be surprised if he’s up with the leaders late.

Brad Keselowski (+800)

Logano’s Penske teammate, Brad Keselowski, has had good luck at Las Vegas lately.

The No. 2 Ford driver has a win and four additional Top 10 finishes in his last six races over this course. No active driver has a better average finishing position than Keselowski (5.33) in this span.

In his last 12 races on 1 1/2-mile tracks, he has a win and nine additional Top 10s. Keselowski is a serious threat to win the Pennzoil 400 as he begins his day in 10th place.

Alex Bowman (+2000)

Hendrick Motorsports visited Victory Lane last week, as William Byron took the Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami. Alex Bowman has a solid chance to make it back-to-back scores for his team on Sunday.

Bowman has hit the Top 10 in six straight races at 1 1/2-mile circuits. He’s also averaged a finish of 8.75 in his last four races at Las Vegas, which includes a career-best fifth-place result here last fall.

Bowman, who’s recorded consecutive Top 10s rolling into this race, will start in ninth place.

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