Quiktrip 500 Betting - Can Hemlin Crash The Podium Again?

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D.S. Williamson

February 22nd, 2019

Fresh off his Daytona 500 victory, Denny Hemlin looks to post back-to-back wins this weekend as an outsider in Quiktrip 500 betting. The race descends on Atlanta this weekend, February 24th with a post time of 2pm ET. Hemlin hasn't won the event since 2012, but his budding Hall of Fame career could certainly receive a big boost this weekend if he's able to steal another race. Defending champion, Kevin Harvick, leads the board along with Brad Keselowski and four-time winner Jimmie Johnson also in the mix! Let's break down this race and see who holds the best value as we tier the contenders.

Those in and around New Jersey should check out sportsbook over the weekend for the updated odds for Quiktrip 500 betting.

Quiktrip 500 Betting Favorites

Kevin Harvick +400
Kyle Busch +600
Joey Logano +600
Martin Truex Jr. +700
Brad Keselowski +700
Kyle Larson +800
Harvick’s average finish in the last 28 races at Atlanta is 16.71. That’s not exactly mind-blowing. However, in the last couple of races at Atlanta, Harvick’s got a win and a couple of top 10 finishes, driving the average down to 5.00.

Kevin’s not the pick among the favorites to win on Sunday, though. There’s a driver among the Quiktrip 500 betting favorites who deserves the most attention to win the Quiktrip and that’s Brad Keselowski. Keselowski didn’t deserve favoritism to win the Daytona 500 last week. He deserves a look to win on Sunday.

Brad has 6 top-10 finishes in his last 10 races at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Three of those six were top 5 finishes, but just one of those 10 was a victory. He should be ready to drive into the winner’s circle on Sunday and offers decent odds at +700.

Quiktrip 500 Betting Pick: Brad Keselowski 

Quiktrip 500 Outsider In Range

Chase Elliott +1000
Denny Hamlin +1400
Clint Bowyer +1600
Aric Almirola +2000
Ryan Blaney +2000
Kurt Busch +2200
Erik Jones +2200
Jimmie Johnson +2500
 Hamlin’s offering less than +1500 odds because he won the Daytona 500, but his odds should be no better than +2000 based on his record at Atlanta where he’s got a single win in his last 19 races.

Everybody on this list has a shot, especially Clint Bowyer and Chase Elliott, but both of those drivers offer less odds than the pick, Jimmie Johnson. He's had a ton of success at this track already, and raced well enough to get into the top-10 at Daytona last Sunday.

He also won the Quiktrip 500 in both 2015 and 2016. So far, so good, with the crew chief switch to Kevin Meendering. Johnson gets the slight edge in this group because he’s comfortable driving at Atlanta, performed well in the Daytona 500, and offers excellent odds.

Quiktrip 500 Betting Pick: Jimmie Johnson 

Underdogs That Can Win

Austin Dillon +5000
William Byron +6600
Daniel Suarez +6600
Matt DiBenedetto +6600
Alex Bowman +6600
Although he won it in 2018, Austin Dillon could do no better than sixteenth in the Daytona 500. Dillon has an excuse. He was without crew chief Greg Ebert who had been suspended from calling the race for Austin due to repeated inspection failures. Anybody who likes Dillon is getting excellent odds. But, he hasn’t always driven well at Atlanta. At +5000, Austin’s actually an underlay.

One angle to find solid underdogs to win a NASCAR race is to think of it like a horse race. Like looking for horses with connections that do well at certain tracks, a NASCAR betting angle is to look for drivers on teams that perform well at certain tracks.

Hendrick Motorsports, Jimmie Johnson’s team, does well at Atlanta. That makes William Byron and Alex Bowman the possible top picks amongst the longshots. Going with Bowman on Sunday because although he doesn’t have great overall history at Atlanta Motor Speedway, he did finish twentieth in the 2018 Folds of Honor Quiktrip 500. Not only that, but he had a nice eleventh place finish at the Daytona 500 last Sunday.

Quiktrip 500 Betting Pick: Alex Bowman