Who Takes the Checkered Flag at O’Reilly Auto Parts 500?

Profile Picture: D.S. Williamson

D.S. Williamson

March 29th, 2019

Brad Keselowski dominated at Martinsville Speedway last Sunday. His victory was so dominant that he shows up as the second choice on the BetAmerica odds board at +400 to win at Texas Motor Speedway this Sunday. Will Kesel get it done again? Or, will O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 favorite Kyle Busch take home another trophy? Let’s find winners among the favorites, the drivers that figure, and the crazy odds underdogs for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas Motor Speedway on Sunday, March 31!

NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Preview


Kyle Busch +210
Brad Keselowski +400
Joey Logano +600
Kevin Harvick +650
Martin Truex Jr. +750
Ryan Blaney +1000
Kyle finished third behind Keselowski and Chase Elliott last Sunday at Martinsville. Busch has dominated since the Daytona 500. His worst finish in six races was a sixth at Atlanta. Not only that, but he’s won 2 of the last 3 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 races. There’s a reason Kyle’s at +210 odds.

Although Busch will be hard to beat, the odds are just too low. We can’t back drivers at +210 because so many factors involve winning a NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Race. We should also turn away from backing Brad Keselowski at +400, even though he led 446 of 500 laps at Martinsville. Brad finished 33rd at last year’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500.

Among the favorites, Kevin Harvick represents the best value. Harvick finished second in this race to Kyle last year. He finished sixth at Martinsville last week, and because he has yet to take a checkered flag since the real racing started, he’s due.

Pick: Kevin Harvick  

Drivers That Figure

Kyle Larson +1800
Chase Elliott +2200
Aric Almirola +2500
Denny Hamlin +2800
Clint Bowyer +3000
Kurt Busch +3300
Erik Jones +4000
Erik Jones finished fourth at the 2018 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500, but Jones and his crew have yet to get on track this year. After a third at Daytona and a seventh at Atlanta, Jones’ car has seemingly fallen off a cliff with 13th-, 29th-, 19th-, and 30th-place finishes in the last four Monster Energy Cup races.

At +2500, Aric Almirola’s the driver to back in this category. Almirola’s been knocking on the door. He’s excelled since the 32nd-place finish at the Daytona 500. He’s driven great while chalking up 5 straight top-10 finishes. It’s only a matter of time before he and his crew put together a race that sends him into the winner’s circle.

Pick: Aric Almirola

Underdogs That Can Win

Austin Dillon +5000
Jimmie Johnson +6600
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +8000
Alex Bowman +10000
Daniel Suarez +10000
Slowly but surely, Daniel Suarez and Stuart-Haas Racing are getting on the same page. After the 33rd-place finish at Daytona, Suarez improved to finish 10th the next week at Atlanta.

He followed that up with a 17th at Las Vegas and 23rd at Phoenix. At California, Daniel finished 13th and then improved last Sunday to finish 10th at Martinsville. Should Suarez win on Sunday?

Of course not. But, look at the odds? We wouldn’t have to put much on Suarez at +10000 to take the checkered flag at Texas Motor Speedway to cash big time while he’s got as much of a shot as any of the other drivers in the underdogs category.

Pick: Daniel Suarez

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