Toyota Owners 400 odds, preview, and value picks

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

April 16th, 2021

Martin Truex Jr. became the first two-time winner in the NASCAR Cup Series this season when he took the Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 at Martinsville Speedway last week. So it’s not all that surprising to see him as the +400 favorite for Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400 from Richmond Raceway (3:00 p.m. ET, FOX).

Truex Jr. will begin on the pole as NASCAR’s performance-based metric determined this week’s starting order. He’s been strong in recent proceedings at Richmond, taking two of the last four races here while placing second and third, respectively, in the other two. But upon further investigation, Truex Jr. looks beatable.

Here are our three upset selections for Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400.

Toyota Owners 400

Sun, April 18 2021, 7:10 PM

Truex Jr, Martin


Hamlin, Denny


Larson, Kyle


Keselowski, Brad


Elliott, Chase


Logano, Joey


Busch, Kyle


Harvick, Kevin


Blaney, Ryan


Byron, William


Brad Keselowski (+750)

Brad Keselowski has a good chance to pick up his first victory of the season this Sunday.

The No. 2 Ford driver took last year’s lone race at Richmond Raceway, winning Stage 2 and leading 192 laps in the process. That was his fifth straight Top 10 at the Virginia oval.

Only Truex Jr. has led more laps at short tracks than Keselowski since 2018 (1,398 to 1,270). When the green flag drops on Sunday afternoon, he’ll be in 20th place.

Joey Logano (+850)

After taking the checkered flag at the Bristol dirt race two weeks ago, Joey Logano will be looking to join Truex Jr. in the multiple win club at a race track he’s had plenty of success at recently.

Logano has two wins and nine additional Top 10 finishes in his last 13 starts at Richmond. He’s led 379 laps and recorded three stage victories in that span.

The No. 22 Ford driver has not just enjoyed success at Richmond of late, but has thrived at all short tracks on the Cup Series circuit. Only Kyle Busch (6.17) has a better average finish than Logano (8.06) over the last 18 NASCAR short track events.

Logano rolls off the grid in fifth place this Sunday.

Chase Elliott (+850)

If his recent short track success is any indication, 2020 Cup Series champion Chase Elliott will be in the picture late in the Toyota Owners 400.

The No. 9 Chevrolet driver managed a second-place finish at Martinsville last week, good for his fifth Top 5 finish in a six-race span over short tracks. That includes his triumphs in the All-Star Race at Bristol and last November’s Championship 4-clinching victory at “The Paperclip.”

Elliott has three Top 5s in his last five starts at Richmond. He’ll begin his day in third place.