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Bucks vs. Suns: The best Devin Booker prop picks for Game 5

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July 17th, 2021

Devin Booker was an unstoppable force in Game 4. He finished with 42 points on over 60% from the field and 8-of-9 from the line, more than shaking off the cobwebs from his 3-for-14 outing in Game 3. If not for some silly fouls, he easily could have eclipsed 50 points, and perhaps stolen victory for Phoenix on the road. 

With the series knotted at 2-2, the Suns desperately need Booker to go off again to protect home court on Saturday. Game 5 is on ABC at 9:00 p.m. ET. 

We have odds and picks for our three favorite Devin Booker prop bets below.

Sun, July 18 2021, 1:10 AM

PHO Suns

Moneyline

-175

Spread

-4

Total

O 218

MIL Bucks

Moneyline

+145

Spread

+4

Total

U 218

OVER/UNDER 28.5 POINTS

Booker was outstanding in Game 4, and he did his damage the way he prefers to: getting inside the paint and pulling up into his jump shot. 

He used screens to get just an extra half step ahead of his man PJ Tucker, giving him the room to take a floater or get into his shooting motion before PJ could bother his shot. And later after relying on that move for a while, he would reject the screen, catching Tucker leaning just ever so slightly the wrong direction and explode to the rim. It’s the stuff that superstar scorers are made of, making something from almost nothing.

With Tucker having limited success, Middleton got his shot at Booker and did a good job staying in front and forcing tough looks.  Eventually, as Booker stayed hot though the responsibility fell to Jrue Holiday, who at times took full-court pressure on Booker. Devin responded by subtle use of Ayton drag screens to spring to the hoop. At a certain point when he got going, there simply was nothing anybody could do to stop him. 

While expecting a repeat of that performance would be a bit much, the line here is comfortably in Booker’s range now that he has demonstrated that nobody on this Bucks team can guard him one-on-one or off of a simple screening action.

PICK: OVER 28.5 POINTS


OVER/UNDER 2.5 3-POINT FIELD GOALS MADE

Booker had great success inside the arc, returning to where he is most comfortable on the court. But he only took three attempts from deep, missing all of them, and two of those were no-hopers with the clock winding down. 

Since he had no issues breaking the paint against anyone the Bucks threw at him, he simply declined to shoot more 3’s. His barrage in Game 2 was an anomaly born of a Bucks defensive strategy that will not see the light of day again this series.

Booker will remember that his best outing came when he played his game, and his game is predicated from the inside out, not the other way around.

PICK: UNDER 2.5 3-POINT FIELD GOALS MADE


OVER/UNDER 4.5 ASSISTS

Booker is not a natural playmaker. Though he’s clearly worked on his craft in that department, he still ranks in just the 50th percentile in Assist to Turnover Ratio among wings, per Cleaning the Glass. That’s partly why, of course, the partnership with Chris Paul has been so fruitful. Paul prefers to manage the game and set everyone up, while Booker is a cold-blooded scorer at heart.

This isn’t always to the team's benefit though, as down the stretch of Game 4, when Booker’s shots finally didn’t fall, nobody else on the team had any rhythm. When it’s going well for Booker, it’s like Game 4, his instinct is to score. In a game when he had 42 points and was creating advantages with ease on every possession, he only had two assists.

The Bucks clearly prefer to play him one-on-one and let him get his than let Chris Paul get the entire Suns’ roster involved, so I expect his opportunities to rack up assists will be limited in Game 5.

PICK: UNDER 4.5 ASSISTS

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