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Clippers vs. Mavs: The best Game 6 player prop bets for Luka Doncic

Profile Picture: Dan Halverson

June 4th, 2021

Mavericks star Luka Doncic has been nothing short of spectacular in Dallas' first round series against the Los Angeles Clippers. The two-time All-Star is averaging 35.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 9.4 assists per contest, and has staked the Mavs to a 3-2 lead heading into tonight's pivotal Game 6.

Sat, June 5 2021, 1:10 AM

DAL Mavericks

Moneyline

+114

Spread

+2.5

Total

O 216.5

LA Clippers

Moneyline

-136

Spread

-2.5

Total

U 216.5

Here are the three best Luka Doncic player prop bets to wager on tonight.

Luka Doncic To Record a Double-Double

Doncic is a threat to register a double-double every time he takes the court. With his scoring ability, the points portion of the double is all but a given. That leaves Doncic needing to haul in 10 rebounds or distribute 10 assists, something that he has done nearly nightly throughout his young career.

In Game 1, Doncic had 10 rebounds and 11 assists. In Game 2, he had seven rebounds and seven assists. In Game 3, he had nine rebounds and nine assists. In Game 4, a game he clearly wasn’t at 100% in, he only tallied six rebounds and six assists. And in Game 5, he had eight rebounds and 14 assists. With his dominating bounceback performance in Game 5, it seems fair to conclude that his neck strain is less hindersome, and we will get typical Luka in Game 6.

Looking at these numbers, and electing to toss out Game 4, Doncic has reached double-digits on rebounds or assists 37.5% of the time. With series advancement on the line in Game 6, I expect his usage to be as high as ever. Doncic will have the ball in his hands constantly, and has the size to battle on the boards. Let’s take the "Yes" on Doncic to record a double-double in his first opportunity to clinch a playoff series.

Pick: Yes (-125)


Luka Doncic Over/Under 9.5 Assists

Doncic is not getting as much scoring help from big man Kristaps Porzingis as many likely hoped and expected, but Tim Hardaway Jr. is proving to be an excellent second option for the Mavs. Hardaway is averaging 17.0 points per game, and that's with only 11 total made free throws.

Hardaway is scoring most of his points from beyond the 3-point line, where Doncic’s ability to penetrate and kick is clearly creating opportunity. He’s hitting 48% of his 3-point attempts, and a type of three-man game between Doncic, Porzingis in the post, and Hardaway on the perimeter is the Mavericks’ most effective offense.

The Clippers don’t want what feels like a death by a thousand cuts with Doncic repeatedly driving the lane, so look for a bit of congestion and help defense that should leave others open for more open looks. I like Doncic to dish out 10 assists or more this game en route to that double-double.

Pick: Over 9.5 assists (-106)


Luka Doncic Over/Under 31.5 Points

Doncic’s point total for Game 6 is posted at a healthy 31.5 points. He has averaged 35.0 points per game in this series, and has surpassed this total four times. NBA basketball is about identifying mismatches and exploiting them, and Doncic is a walking mismatch.

It's more likely than not that Doncic scores 32 points or more tonight giving the way he's rolling. Add another "Over" bet to the list here.

Pick: Over 31.5 points (-127)

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