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Mavericks vs. Suns: The best player prop bets for Nov. 17

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November 17th, 2021

Tonight’s game between the Phoenix Suns and the Dallas Mavericks not only features two of the younger, more exciting teams in the Western Conference, it also has major playoff-seeding implications down the road. The Suns currently sit at second place in the West at 10-3, but the Mavericks, despite their uneven play, are nipping at their heels at 9-4. 

The Mavericks will need big performances from Krisptaps Porzingis and Jalen Brunson to match the firepower of the Suns, as Luka Doncic is expected to miss a few games with an ankle injury. Are they up to the challenge?

Suns vs. Mavericks tips off at 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN, and we have the three best player prop bets below.

Thu, November 18 2021, 3:05 AM

PHO Suns

Moneyline

-375

Spread

-8.5

Total

O 212.5

DAL Mavericks

Moneyline

+295

Spread

+8.5

Total

U 212.5

KRISTAPS PORZINGIS TO RECORD A DOUBLE-DOUBLE

After seriously struggling in last year’s playoffs, all eyes are on Kristaps Porzingis again this year. So conventional wisdom goes, If the Mavericks are going to succeed, they need Porzingis to be closer to the New York Knicks version of "KP" than the one they’ve got in Dallas.

Except that’s not entirely accurate. True, Kristaps struggled against the Los Angeles Clippers in the playoffs, but I would argue that was an exceptionally bad matchup. When you actually look at Porzingis’ stats from last season: 20.1 points, 8.9 rebounds at 58.1% true shooting, you realize that in many ways he is coming off a career season. So it makes sense that Jason Kidd is doing what he can to maximize Kristaps on that end, he’s not the total lost cause he’s sometimes portrayed as. And he’s playing well again this season, particularly in the Mavs' previous game when Porzingis scored 29 points on 11-of-20 shooting, with 11 rebounds against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets.

And it’s the way he’s doing it more than anything that gives you confidence. This is the first offseason in years where Porzingis wasn’t rehabbing an injury, and his movements just look more fluid. He’s cutting to the basket and getting quick seals under the hoop more than in the past, and is not solely reliant on his 3-point shot. And with added strength and commitment he’s shown that he can be a solid rebounder too. When he plays without Doncic, he sees his rebounding stats climb from a career average of 7.9 to 11.5.

Pick: YES (+115)


DEVIN BOOKER OVER/UNDER 24.5 POINTS

Like seemingly so many star guards this season, Devin Booker is off to a slow start. His struggles haven’t been as stark as say Damian Lillard, but at 22.9 points on 49.0% effective field goal percentage, it hasn’t been the Booker of recent years either. And despite the Suns going on this recent winning streak to catapult them back up to the top of the Western Conference standings, Booker has actually seen his scoring decline to just 20.4 points over the last five games.

Booker is likely fatigued. Not only did the Suns reach the NBA Finals, he then hopped on a plane to play for Team USA in the Tokyo 2020 Olympics just a few days after losing. Looking at Booker’s shot profile, it looks like someone who might be low energy.

Booker has always shot fewer 3s than the typical shooting guard, but this season he’s seen a significant drop off in his attempts at the rim, where he is taking a career-low 18% of his shots. And with Porzingis making a return to his rim deterring ways this year, it’s unlikely Booker finds many easy ones inside. 

PICK: UNDER 24.5 POINTS (-120)


JALEN BRUNSON OVER/UNDER 17.5 POINTS

Brunson had a breakout season last year and was a serious contender for Sixth Man of the Year. Though he struggled in the playoffs, he’s showing again this year why he might be the Mavericks’ best guard some day soon.

Despite being just 6’3”, Brunson lives in the paint. He scoring an absurd 72% of his shots at the rim this season, which is an elite mark for any player, let alone a guard. Brunson uses his speed and craft to just slightly wrong foot the opposing big before making his patented scoop layup. Though Deandre Ayton isn’t what I could call a slow-footed center by any means, he’s still not likely to deter Brunson much at the basket, particularly as he’s only just returning from a leg contusion.

PICK: OVER 17.5 POINTS (-113)

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