NBA Betting Trends: Bettors should be bullish on Chicago
Now that we've passed the halfway point of the NBA regular season, we have a strong set of data to dive into. Let's break down the latest metrics from around the league, and determine which trends you should take advantage of this week and beyond.
NBA Mini-series trends
We discussed the NBA mini-series that occur from time to time throughout the season in last week's column. We have found a few interesting trends in the Western Conference:
- The road favorite is a nice 4-1 ATS in the first game
- The Over is a strong play at 10-7 in the second game
- In the second game, the underdog is 11-6 ATS, and road underdogs are an amazing 8-2 ATS
- The team that lost straight-up in the first game is 11-6 ATS in the second game
- The road team in the second game is 12-5 ATS
This upcoming week, we have one Western Conference mini-series with the Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks on Thursday, Feb. 10 and Saturday, Feb. 12.
NBA Championship 2021/2022
Sat, June 18 2022, 11:58 PM
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Lakers
Each week, we continue to track how certain teams are in playing in back-to-back games in specific situations.
When a team wins by six points or less and then plays again the very next day, they are a dreadful 14-25-2 ATS. Some of the worst teams in the NBA on the second game of a back-to-back are the Houston Rockets (1-6-1 ATS) and Brooklyn Nets (1-7-1 ATS).
The best teams in the NBA on the second game of a back-to-back are the Toronto Raptors (8-2 ATS) and Memphis Grizzlies (7-3 ATS).
Overs and Unders
On the season so far, the totals favor the Under at 415-396 in all games, and 411-367 in all non-overtime games. That means that the Over is 29-4 in all overtime games. While you can hardly predict a game going to overtime to hit an Over, there are some total trends to look for based on situations and teams.
The hottest team for betting the Over is the Minnesota Timberwolves. They are 14-3 in favor of the Over in their past 17 games, and 22-6 to the Over in all road games. Minnesota is now the second best team to bet on the Over in the NBA at 33-22. The Chicago Bulls (12-4-1) and Indiana Pacers (8-1) are also on Over hot streaks.
The Mavericks are still in the lead when looking at the best teams to bet the Under on with three straight Unders after their five-game Over streak. The Boston Celtics are on the hottest streak for Unders, as they have gone Under the total is nine of their last 12 games. The New Orleans Pelicans (12-4) and Washington Wizards (7-3) are also on Under hot streaks.
Favorites are rolling
The betting favorite is on an absolute tear dating back to Saturday, Feb. 5. In the past 35 games played in the NBA, the closing favorite is an unbelievable 30-4-1 ATS. It is hard to believe that this will be sustainable long-term, but with the trade deadline today, you may see several teams short-handed for a few games and the favorites will likely be money in the short-term.
Four teams have been especially good as favorites this season. The Chicago Bulls are 23-11-1 ATS as a favorite and 14-6 ATS as a home favorite. The New Orleans Pelicans are 8-4-1 ATS as favorites and 5-1-1 ATS as home favorites. The Toronto Raptors are 17-9 ATS when favored and the Memphis Grizzlies are 19-11 ATS in that situation.