NBA Betting Trends: Cleveland rocks (against the spread)

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January 12th, 2022

As we near the halfway point of the NBA regular season, we have a strong set of data to dive into. Let's break down the latest metrics from around the league, and determine which trends you should take advantage of this season.

Doubt Cleveland at your own peril

Since the turn of the century, the Cleveland Cavaliers have been one of the worst teams in the league every year that LeBron James has not been on their roster. It took a while, but they're finally flipping the script, and are 23-18 and in sixth place in the Eastern Conference.

Even better than their win/loss record is their ATS record. The Cavs are a league best 26-13-2 against the spread on the season. They are especially good with extra rest. When the Cavaliers have 2-3 days off before the game, they are 6-1 ATS.

Will 2022 be the Year of the Mavs?

The Dallas Mavericks were maddeningly mediocre for the first three months of the season, but they seem to have discovered a new gear since January. Dallas has won six consecutive games and seven of their past eight since the calendar flipped over.

Against the spread, they have covered 12 of their past 17 games. They are now 21-19 ATS on the season. There are two scenarios where you can make good money by betting on the Mavs blindly. After a loss, the Mavericks are 12-6 ATS. As a road favorite, Dallas is 6-3 ATS.

Overs and Unders

On the season so far, the totals favor the Under at 313-287 in all games and 309-265 in all non-overtime games. That means that the Over is 22-4 in all overtime games. While you can hardly predict a game going to overtime to hit your Over, there are some total trends to look for based on situations and teams.

The best team to bet for the Over is the Miami Heat. They are 25-15 in favor of the Over this season. The Heat are also one of the hottest teams lately in totals betting, as they are 8-1 in favor of the Over in their past nine games.

Two teams tie for the best Under record in their games. Both the Mavericks and Golden State Warriors are 25-13-2 in favor of the Under in their games. The last seven games involving the Mavericks are 6-1 in favor of the Under, and the last 11 home games for Dallas are 10-1 in favor of the Under. The Mavs also have the second lowest average total points in their games at 209.1 per game.

Brooklyn is overrated

Just because a team is a title contender doesn't make it a good team to wager on every game. The Brooklyn Nets are a perfect example of this. They have the sixth best record in the NBA and the second best record in the Eastern Conference at 25-14.

However, the Nets are a league worst 14-24-1 ATS, and have failed to cover in seven consecutive games. Brooklyn is especially bad at home. The Nets are 4-16-1 ATS in all home games and 3-16-1 as a home favorite. The Nets are 10-23-1 ATS in all games in which they are favored.