NBA Betting Trends: Don't mess with Dallas (after a loss)

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March 1st, 2022

As we head into the final quarter of the NBA season, we have a strong set of data to dive into. Let's break down the latest metrics from around the league, and determine which trends you should take advantage of this week and beyond.

NBA Mini-series trends

We discussed the NBA mini-series that occur from time to time throughout the season in last week's column. We've found a few interesting trends in the Western Conference:

  • The road favorite is 5-2 ATS in the first game
  • The favorite is 12-7-1 ATS overall in the first game
  • In the second game, the underdog is 13-6 ATS, and road underdogs are 10-2 ATS
  • The team that lost straight-up in the first game is 13-6 ATS in the second game
  • The road team in the second game is 14-5 ATS

Some trends in the Eastern Conference include:

  • The road favorite is 5-2 ATS in the first game
  • The Over is 9-6 in the first game
  • The home team is 8-4 ATS in the second game
  • The home favorite is 5-2 ATS in the second game

There is the second game of a mini-series this week in the Western Conference with the Los Angeles Clippers and Houston Rockets on Tuesday, March 1. There is also a full mini-series in the Western Conference this week with the Portland Trail Blazers and Minnesota Timberwolves on Saturday, March 5 and Monday, March 7.

There are three second games of a mini-series in the Eastern Conference with Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets on Tuesday, March 1, the Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks on Wednesday, March 2, and the Indiana Pacers and Orlando Magic on Wednesday, March 2.

NBA Championship 2021/2022

Sat, June 18 2022, 11:58 PM

Golden State Warriors


Phoenix Suns


Brooklyn Nets


Milwaukee Bucks


Philadelphia 76ers


Miami Heat


Utah Jazz


Boston Celtics


Chicago Bulls


Memphis Grizzlies



When a team wins by six points or less and then plays again the very next day, they are a dreadful 16-28-2 ATS. Some of the worst teams in the NBA on the second game of a back-to-back are the Houston Rockets (1-7-1 ATS), Brooklyn Nets (1-8-1 ATS), and Charlotte Hornets (3-9 ATS).

The best teams in the NBA on the second game of a back-to-back are the Toronto Raptors (9-3 ATS), Memphis Grizzlies (7-4 ATS), and Indiana Pacers (7-4 ATS).

Overs and Unders

On the season so far, the totals favor the Over at 453-452 in all games, and 447-419 in favor of the Under in all non-overtime games. That means that the Over is 34-5 in all overtime games, according to

Game TypeOverUnder
All Games
Non-Overtime Games
Overtime Games

The hottest team for betting the Over is the Indiana Pacers. They are 13-3 in favor of the Over in their past 16 games. The Milwaukee Bucks are 16-4 in favor of the Over in the past 19 games. The New York Knicks (8-2), Brooklyn Nets (8-1), and Phoenix Suns (7-2) are also on Over hot streaks.

The New Orleans Pelicans are on the hottest streak for Unders, as they have gone Under the total in 11 of their last 14 games. The Portland Trail Blazers (7-3) and Cleveland Cavaliers (9-5-1) are also on Under hot streaks.

Dallas is BIG on Revenge Games

No team is better in the NBA against the spread following a loss than the Dallas Mavericks. They are an impressive 18-7 ATS in the next game after a straight-up loss. The Mavericks cover those games by an astounding 6.7 points per game.

The Mavericks are also very good when they have exactly one day off between games. They are 24-13-1 ATS in that situation and 21-12-1 ATS when they have the equal amount of rest as their opponent. Dallas has covered eight of its past nine games overall.