NBA Betting Trends: Home hasn't been so sweet for the Nets this season
Now that we've passed the halfway point of the NBA regular season, we have a strong set of data to dive into. Let's break down the latest metrics from around the league, and determine which trends you should take advantage of this season.
Last season due to COVID-19 restrictions, the NBA introduced a schedule that had teams facing each other in consecutive games. There are not as many of these "mini-series" this season, but they still pop up from time to time. In these games, we have found a few interesting trends.
In the Eastern Conference mini-series games, there are not a ton of hot trends, but there are a few. In the first game of the mini-series, the road underdog is 4-2-1 ATS. In the second game, the home team is 8-4 ATS, and home favorites are 5-2 ATS. In all games in these mini-series, the Over is 14-10.
In the Western Conference mini-series games, the Under is an impressive 9-5 in the first game. Meanwhile, the Over is a strong play at 9-5 in the second game. Also in the second games, the underdog is 10-4 ATS, and road underdogs are an amazing 8-1 ATS. The team that lost straight-up in the first game is 10-4 ATS in the second game.
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Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Lakers
In last week’s column, we discussed how surprisingly good the Toronto Raptors were in the second game of a back-to-back. Just how bad are most teams in this situation? Let's take a closer look.
When a team wins by six points or less and then plays again the very next day, they are a dreadful 9-23-2 ATS. Some of the worst teams in the NBA on the second game of a back-to-back include the Houston Rockets (1-6-1 ATS), Denver Nuggets (1-6 ATS), and Brooklyn Nets (1-5-1 ATS).
Overs and Unders
On the season so far, the totals favor the Under at 366-338 in all games, and 362-314 in all non-overtime games. That means that the Over is 24-4 in all overtime games. While you can hardly predict a game going to overtime to hit an Over, there are some total trends to look for based on situations and teams.
The hottest team for betting the Over on is the Minnesota Timberwolves. They are 7-1 in favor of the Over in their past eight games, and 11-2 to the Over in their past 13 road games. Minnesota is the fourth best team to bet on the Over in the NBA at 26-20. The Denver Nuggets (6-1) and Atlanta Hawks (5-1) are also on Over hot streaks.
The Dallas Mavericks are still in a league of their own when looking at the best teams to bet the Under on. Dallas games favor the Under at 34-13, which is 72.3% hit rate. The next closest rate for Unders is the Golden State Warriors at 63%. The Mavericks have also gone Under the projected point total 13 times in their last 14 games overall. The Charlotte Hornets (7-1), Raptors (7-1), and New Orleans Pelicans (6-1) are also on Under hot streaks.
Brooklyn does not go hard at home
The Brooklyn Nets are one of the worst teams against the spread this season and that is because of their dreadful home record. Without Kyrie Irving eligible to play in the state of New York, the short-handed Nets are 5-18-1 ATS in all home games. As a home favorite, they are 4-17-1 ATS.